JCI
Johnson ControlsNYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, JCI has a composite score of 10.4 and a signal label of "mild_favorable." The guidance credibility score increased to 87.5, reflecting a rise of 12.5 points, while the management score improved to 61.3, up by 11.5 points. These changes contributed to the overall positive signal, despite ongoing macroeconomic concerns.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.66
- Slope (norm)0.54
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Buyback / dividend activity on weakening fundamentals — historically a value-trap pattern (48% T+1y positive return vs 69% baseline in IT 2024-26).
Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.28 → $1.30 (+1.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 3 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 52% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.6% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
7 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve organic sales growth of ~6% for fiscal 2026growthmixed28% progress
5/7: “The Company's fiscal 2026 full year continuing operations guidance is as follows: ... Organic sales growth of ~6% (previously up mid-single digits)”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue decreased from $6052M in 2025-Q3 to $5797M in 2026-Q1. Despite the stated growth target, the recent revenue trajectory shows a decline, indicating limited progress towards the 6% growth goal.
- 2.Achieve adjusted EPS of ~$4.85 for fiscal 2026growthmixed28% progress
5/7: “The Company's fiscal 2026 full year continuing operations guidance is as follows: ... Adjusted EPS of ~$4.85 (previously ~$4.70)”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EPS guidance increased from ~$4.55 in 2025-Q4 to ~$4.85 in 2026-Q2. Despite the upward revision, the actual EPS for 2026-Q1 was $0.85, indicating a need for significant improvement to meet the annual target.
- 3.Maintain operating leverage of ~50% for fiscal 2026costbehind0% progress
5/7: “The Company's fiscal 2026 full year continuing operations guidance is as follows: ... Operating leverage of ~50% (unchanged)”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Operating income decreased from $880M in 2025-Q4 to $708M in 2026-Q1, while revenue also declined. The unchanged operating leverage target suggests a focus on cost management, but recent financials show limited progress towards this goal.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-31 | $0.72 – $0.74 | $0.75 | beat |
| 2023-06-30 | $1.01 – $1.03 | $1.03 | inside |
| 2023-12-31 | $0.65 – $0.67 | $0.51 | miss |
| 2024-03-31 | $0.74 – $0.78 | $0.78 | inside |
| 2024-06-30 | — | $1.14 | unclassifiable |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.77 – $0.79 | $0.82 | beat |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.97 – $1.00 | $1.05 | beat |
| 2026-03-31 | $1.11 | $1.19 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 30%; 252d 26%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −13%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.03 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 57/100, drawdown 75/100, beta 97/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · guidance_credibility_scoreseverity 31
Guidance credibility rose by 12.5 points (from 75.0 to 87.5).
- score change · management_scoreseverity 29
Management rose by 11.5 points (from 49.8 to 61.3).
- label change · signal_labelseverity 20
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
As of 2026-05-08, the guidance credibility score rose by 12.5 points, increasing from 75.0 to 87.5. The management score also increased by 11.5 points, moving from 49.8 to 61.3. Additionally, the signal label changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 88% of the last 8 guided quarters · 3.6% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve organic sales growth of ~6% for fiscal 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-07The company aims for organic sales growth of approximately 6% for the fiscal year 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue decreased from $6052M in 2025-Q3 to $5797M in 2026-Q1. Despite the stated growth target, the recent revenue trajectory shows a decline, indicating limited progress towards the 6% growth goal.
28%CEO/CFO:“The Company's fiscal 2026 full year continuing operations guidance is as follows: ... Organic sales growth of ~6% (previously up mid-single digits)”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-07Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-07Show history (2)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Organic sales growth of ~6% (previously up mid-single digits)”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Organic sales growth of mid-single digits”
- #2
Achieve adjusted EPS of ~$4.85 for fiscal 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-07The company targets an adjusted EPS of approximately $4.85 for the fiscal year 2026.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EPS guidance increased from ~$4.55 in 2025-Q4 to ~$4.85 in 2026-Q2. Despite the upward revision, the actual EPS for 2026-Q1 was $0.85, indicating a need for significant improvement to meet the annual target.
28%CEO/CFO:“The Company's fiscal 2026 full year continuing operations guidance is as follows: ... Adjusted EPS of ~$4.85 (previously ~$4.70)”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-07Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-07Show history (3)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Adjusted EPS of ~$4.85 (previously ~$4.70)”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Adjusted EPS of ~$4.70 (previously ~$4.55)”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Adjusted EPS of ~$4.55”
- #3
Maintain operating leverage of ~50% for fiscal 2026
CostNew since 2026-05-07The company aims to maintain an operating leverage of approximately 50% for the fiscal year 2026.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q2. Operating income decreased from $880M in 2025-Q4 to $708M in 2026-Q1, while revenue also declined. The unchanged operating leverage target suggests a focus on cost management, but recent financials show limited progress towards this goal.
0%CEO/CFO:“The Company's fiscal 2026 full year continuing operations guidance is as follows: ... Operating leverage of ~50% (unchanged)”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-07Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-07Show history (1)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Operating leverage of ~50% (unchanged)”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
JCI Johnson Controls | +10 | full | low |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-05-07)-16 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-062d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Johnson Controls International plc (the "Company") issued a press release containing information about the Company’s results of operations for the three and six months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference in this
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 75 - 2026-05-071d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, the Company issued a revised earnings release, as described in the Explanatory Note above. A copy of this revised earnings release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference in this
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 64 - 2026-05-044d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 1, 2026, Johnson Controls International plc (the “Company”) and Lei Schlitz, the Company’s Vice President and President, Global Products & Solutions, determined that Ms. Schlitz will leave the Company as part of a planned transition made in connection with changes in the Company’s operating model that will result in a revised scope of the po…
executive changeneutralscore 51 - 2026-02-043mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026, Johnson Controls International plc (the "Company") issued a press release containing information about the Company’s results of operations for the three months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference in this
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8 - 2025-09-247mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On September 19, 2025, Johnson Controls International plc (the “Company”) and Nathan Manning, the Company’s Vice President and President, Americas, determined that Mr. Manning would transition leadership of the Company’s Americas business segment and leave the Company to pursue other opportunities. Todd Grabowski, the Company’s President Global Dat…
executive changeneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.