KDP
Keurig Dr PepperNASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, KDP has a composite score of 8.3, with a signal label of "mixed" and a medium confidence level of 76.0. The score is influenced by various factors, including a macro score of 15.5 and a momentum score of -27.8. The top drivers affecting the score include macroeconomic conditions related to labor, inflation, rates, and growth. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.95
- Slope (norm)-0.35
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.57 → $0.54 (-5.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 9 cut, 13 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 59% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.0% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
23 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve global coffee leadershipgrowthbehind0% progress
4/23: “KDP completed its acquisition of JDE Peet’s, achieving a significant milestone in our transformation agenda.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. KDP completed the acquisition of JDE Peet’s, marking a significant step towards global coffee leadership. However, financials show a net income decline from $547M in 2025-Q3 to -$107M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in financial performance despite strategic moves.
- 2.Drive revenue growthgrowthbehind0% progress
2/24: “KDP expects net sales of $25.9-$26.4 billion for 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Despite guidance for $25.9-$26.4B in 2026 revenue, actual revenue declined from $4.31B in 2025-Q3 to $3.41B in 2025-Q4, showing limited progress towards growth targets.
- 3.Improve cost efficiencycostbehind0% progress
5/4: “KDP is focused on improving cost efficiency to enhance profitability.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Despite the focus on cost efficiency, operating income fell from $995M in 2025-Q3 to -$67M in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in achieving cost efficiency improvements.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 31%; 252d 28%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −27%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLP) — 1.26 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 53/100, drawdown 45/100, beta 74/100, earnings vol —.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve global coffee leadership
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04KDP aims to achieve global coffee leadership through strategic acquisitions and integration.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. KDP completed the acquisition of JDE Peet’s, marking a significant step towards global coffee leadership. However, financials show a net income decline from $547M in 2025-Q3 to -$107M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in financial performance despite strategic moves.
0%CEO/CFO:“KDP completed its acquisition of JDE Peet’s, achieving a significant milestone in our transformation agenda.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-23Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“KDP completed its acquisition of JDE Peet’s, achieving a significant milestone.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The transaction is expected to close in early April 2026.”
- #2
Drive revenue growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04KDP aims to drive revenue growth with a focus on achieving high-single-digit growth.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Despite guidance for $25.9-$26.4B in 2026 revenue, actual revenue declined from $4.31B in 2025-Q3 to $3.41B in 2025-Q4, showing limited progress towards growth targets.
0%CEO/CFO:“KDP expects net sales of $25.9-$26.4 billion for 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-24Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“KDP expects net sales of $25.9-$26.4 billion for 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“KDP now expects fiscal 2025 constant currency net sales growth in a high-single-digit range.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“KDP reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 guidance for constant currency net sales growth.”
- #3
Improve cost efficiency
CostNew since 2026-05-04KDP is focused on improving cost efficiency to enhance profitability.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Despite the focus on cost efficiency, operating income fell from $995M in 2025-Q3 to -$67M in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in achieving cost efficiency improvements.
0%CEO/CFO:“KDP is focused on improving cost efficiency to enhance profitability.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-04Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“KDP is focused on improving cost efficiency to enhance profitability.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KDP Keurig Dr Pepper | +8.3 | inexpensive | moderate |
WMT Walmart | -9.3 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | +3.9 | expensive | moderate |
PG Procter & Gamble | +15 | fair | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | +14 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_staples sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-23)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-23)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.2 pts
- If consumer_staples sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2315d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. On April 23, 2026 , Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (the "Co…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 46 - 2026-04-011mo agoItem 1.01
of each of the Company’s Current Reports on Form 8-K filed with the SEC on October 30, 2025 and February 23, 2026. Registration Rights Agreement In connection with the issuance of Convertible Preferred Stock, on March 30, 2026, the Company entered into a Registration Rights Agreement, by and among the Company and the Preferred Investors, pursuant to which the Preferred Investors will have certain customary registration rights with respect to the Convertible Preferred Stock and the Company’s c…
mna activitypositivescore 32 - 2026-04-011mo agoItem 2.01
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. As previously disclosed by the Company, on August 24, 2025, the Company and JDE Peet’s entered into a merger protocol (the “Merger Protocol”), pursuant to which, on January 15, 2026, the Company’s wholly-owned subsidiary Kodiak BidCo B.V. (“Kodiak BidCo”) commenced an offer to acquire all of the issued and outstanding ordinary shares of JDE Peet’s (the “Shares”), excluding treasury shares of JDE Peet’s, for €31.85 per share in cash, without…
mna activitypositivescore 30 - 2026-03-261mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On March 26, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Maple Parent Holdings Corp. (the “Issuer”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, completed its previously announced private offerings of €3.0 billion euro denominated notes (the “Euro Notes”) and $2.55 billion USD denominated notes (the “USD Notes” and, together with the Euro Notes, the “Notes”). The Euro Notes consist of €600 million aggregate principal amount of 3.495% not…
capital allocationpositivescore 24 - 2026-04-011mo agoItem 3.02
The issuance and sale of the Convertible Preferred Stock was made in reliance upon an exemption from the registration requirements of Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). The Convertible Preferred Stock issued pursuant to the Investment Agreement and the Common Stock issuable upon conversion of the Convertible Preferred Stock may not be re-offered or sold in the United States absent an effective registration statement or an exemption from the regis…
capital allocationnegativescore 22
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.