KEY
KeyCorpNYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, KEY has a composite score of -6.9, indicating a mixed signal. This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 73.9 and reflects unfavorable macro conditions with a score of -7.7, while the sector score is more favorable at 14.6. The analysis is provisional, and the top drivers include macro factors such as rates, growth, labor, and inflation.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share-0.10
- Slope (norm)-0.76
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.45 → $0.42 (-4.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 7 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve 15%+ return on tangible common equity by 2027growthmixed63% progress
4/16: “CEO: 'Return on tangible common equity exceeded 13%, reflecting significant progress toward achieving our goal of 15%+ by year-end 2027.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Return on tangible common equity exceeded 13% in 2026-Q1, showing progress toward the 15%+ target by 2027. The trajectory is positive, but further improvement is needed to meet the goal.
- 2.Drive strong revenue and earnings growth in 2026growthbehind0% progress
4/16: “CEO: 'We remain well positioned to drive strong revenue and earnings growth in 2026.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue grew to $1.95 billion in 2026-Q1, a 10% increase year-over-year, indicating strong growth. Earnings also improved, with net income rising to $486 million from $370 million in 2025-Q1. The trajectory is delivering on the stated priority.
- 3.Return capital through share repurchasescapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/16: “CEO: 'We repurchased almost $400 million of common shares in the first quarter.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. KeyCorp repurchased $389 million of common shares in 2026-Q1, demonstrating commitment to capital return. This aligns with the stated priority, showing active capital allocation through buybacks.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 22%; 252d 25%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −18%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 1.27 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 59/100, drawdown 65/100, beta 73/100, earnings vol —.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -288.0% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve 15%+ return on tangible common equity by 2027
GrowthKeyCorp aims to achieve a return on tangible common equity exceeding 15% by the end of 2027.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Return on tangible common equity exceeded 13% in 2026-Q1, showing progress toward the 15%+ target by 2027. The trajectory is positive, but further improvement is needed to meet the goal.
63%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Return on tangible common equity exceeded 13%, reflecting significant progress toward achieving our goal of 15%+ by year-end 2027.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-16Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-16Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'Return on tangible common equity exceeded 13%, reflecting significant progress toward achieving our goal of 15%+ by year-end 2027.'”
- #2
Drive strong revenue and earnings growth in 2026
GrowthKeyCorp is focused on driving strong revenue and earnings growth throughout 2026.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue grew to $1.95 billion in 2026-Q1, a 10% increase year-over-year, indicating strong growth. Earnings also improved, with net income rising to $486 million from $370 million in 2025-Q1. The trajectory is delivering on the stated priority.
0%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We remain well positioned to drive strong revenue and earnings growth in 2026.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-16Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-16Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'We remain well positioned to drive strong revenue and earnings growth in 2026.'”
- #3
Return capital through share repurchases
Capital allocationKeyCorp is committed to returning capital to shareholders through share repurchases.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. KeyCorp repurchased $389 million of common shares in 2026-Q1, demonstrating commitment to capital return. This aligns with the stated priority, showing active capital allocation through buybacks.
35%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We repurchased almost $400 million of common shares in the first quarter.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-16Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-16Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'We repurchased almost $400 million of common shares in the first quarter.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
48 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KEY KeyCorp | -6.9 | fair | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-01-20)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-01-20)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-1623d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On April 16, 2026, KeyCorp issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three-month periods ended March 31, 2026 (the “Press Release”), and posted on its website its first quarter 2026 Supplemental Information Package (the “Supplemental Information Package”). The Press Release and Supplemental Information Package are being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively. The information in the preceding paragraph, as…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 39
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.