Kopin Corp. (KOPN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.28+0.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KOPN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 32.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 72 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KOPN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . Kopin Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release on August 10, 2026, a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference, in which the Company announced financial results for the second quarter ended June 27, 2026. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as…
Why it matters: This investment could support new product development and revenue growth.
Supportive ifLook for news about a new product or partnership from this investment.
Worry ifNo news or updates on how the investment is doing.
Why it matters: Any change in the dividend could signal management's confidence in future cash flow. It can also affect investor sentiment.
Watch forKopin announces an increase in its dividend payout.
Also watch forKopin cuts or suspends its dividend payment.
Why it matters: Making profits would be a big step for Kopin. It would help investors.
Supportive ifManagement says they are making progress toward GAAP profits by Q4 2026.
Worry ifManagement changes guidance. They expect more losses after Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Growing revenue is important for making money in the long run.
Watch forQ3 total revenues increase year over year by more than 20%.
Also watch forQ3 total revenues decline or grow less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Progress on this partnership could open new revenue streams in the AI hardware market.
Supportive ifA demo version of the Neural I/o technology is announced.
Worry ifThere is no news or delays in the Neural I/o technology development.
Why it matters: Making profits shows strong operations and good financial health.
Supportive ifKopin expects to reach sustainable GAAP profits in Q4 2026.
Worry ifKopin continues to report losses in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Starting volume production shows strong demand for Kopin's drone technology. It also shows growth potential.
Supportive ifVolume production orders for Sentinel FPV™ are set to start in late August 2026.
Worry ifNo volume production orders are received by the end of August 2026.
Why it matters: A successful demo at CES 2027 would prove Kopin's progress in AI technology.
Supportive ifThe Neural I/o™ technology demo at CES in January 2027 is successful.
Worry ifThe demo does not happen or does not meet technical standards.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how much revenue is growing and how well the company runs.
Watch forEarnings beat expectations with revenue growth exceeding 10% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings miss expectations with revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: This contract could greatly increase Kopin's revenue and support its defense strategy.
Supportive ifRevenue from the thermal imaging contract will show up in the next quarters.
Worry ifNo revenue from the thermal imaging contract in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may show a slowdown. This could hurt Kopin's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its historical median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is still higher than its average from the past.
Why it matters: A drop in product revenue shows Kopin faces challenges in its main markets.
Worry ifQ2 2026 product revenue down year over year worse than -41%.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 product revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Higher revenues would show that growth continues. This would help management reach profit goals.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenues are over $12.7 million. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenues fall below $12.7 million.
Why it matters: Volume orders would confirm strong demand for Kopin's Sentinel FPV product in the drone market.
Supportive ifVolume orders from the U.S. Government's Drone Dominance Program begin in late August 2026.
Worry ifNo volume orders are received by the end of September 2026.
Why it matters: New contracts would reinforce Kopin's position in the defense sector and support revenue growth.
Supportive ifNew defense contracts worth over $10 million are announced.
Worry ifNo new defense contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Progress on this technology could create new markets in AI.
Supportive ifA working prototype or first use of Neural I/o™ technology is announced.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems in the development of Neural I/o™ technology.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$497 on $10,000 · ±5.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $953 loss on $10,000 · 9.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,573 loss on $10,000 · 55.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.