Krystal Biotech, Inc. (KRYS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$358.24-3.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KRYS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 32.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 36.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KRYS — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-21
and the copy of the image of the corneal epithelial defect closure from the patent prosecution record that is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 shall not be (i) deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended , or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, or (ii) incorporated by reference into any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission by the Company, whether made before or after the date hereof, re…
Why it matters: Interim results may show if KB407 is safe and works for CF patients.
Watch forInterim results from the KB407 study are reported before year-end 2026.
Also watch forNo interim results are shared, or results show no safety concerns.
Why it matters: Successful launches in these countries would help VYJUVEK reach more customers and earn more money.
Supportive ifVYJUVEK launches in Spain and Italy occur before the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo launches occur in Spain or Italy by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Good results could support KB407's ability to treat cystic fibrosis.
Supportive ifResults show good lung delivery and expression of CFTR protein in patients.
Worry ifResults show poor lung delivery or expression of CFTR protein.
Why it matters: Good data from this study could show that KB803 works well and help with approvals.
Supportive ifThe KB803 study shows a big drop in corneal abrasion symptoms.
Worry ifThe KB803 study shows no big change in symptoms.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $348 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,734 loss on $10,000 · 17.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% would signal a slowdown in Krystal Biotech's growth. This could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Good results could lead to a study that helps treat Hailey-Hailey disease.
Supportive ifKB111 study results show safety and tolerability. This could start a new study.
Worry ifKB111 study results show safety concerns or lack of efficacy.
Why it matters: This data will show if KB801 works for treating neurotrophic keratitis. Good data could improve the product's market potential.
Supportive ifPositive data from the EMERALD-1 study shows KB801 works for treating NK.
Worry ifData from EMERALD-1 show no big effect in treating NK.
Why it matters: Improving operating income shows Krystal Biotech is managing costs well. This supports long-term growth.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income is higher than in Q1.
Worry ifQ2 operating income is lower than in Q1.
Why it matters: Net income growth is important for financial health. It shows how much money the company makes.
Supportive ifQ2 net income shows growth compared to Q1.
Worry ifQ2 net income declines compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Good talks could mean more money from VYJUVEK in these important markets.
Supportive ifThe company shares good pricing deals with German and French officials.
Worry ifTalks fail, which delays possible launches in Germany and France.
Why it matters: Interim data will show how safe and tolerable KB408 is for AATD patients. This could affect future development.
Watch forInterim data shows that KB408 is safe and well-tolerated.
Also watch forInterim data raises safety concerns. It shows that KB408 may not be well-tolerated.
Why it matters: The results will show if KB803 effectively reduces corneal abrasion symptoms in DEB patients. This could support future growth.
Supportive ifTop-line results show at least a 25% reduction in symptom days compared to placebo.
Worry ifResults show no big drop in symptom days compared to placebo.
Why it matters: Alignment with the FDA will enable the start of a critical registrational study for KB407. This could accelerate its path to market.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of FDA alignment on the study design for KB407.
Worry ifFailure to align with the FDA, delaying the study start.
Why it matters: Good pricing talks could help more people access VYJUVEK. This would increase revenue.
Supportive ifSuccessful talks let VYJUVEK launch in Germany and France.
Worry ifIf talks fail or take too long, market access will be delayed.
Why it matters: Finishing enrollment shows progress in making a treatment for cystic fibrosis. This is important for the company.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the KB407 study is completed by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifEnrollment is not completed by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Successful negotiations could lead to wider access for VYJUVEK, boosting revenue. Delays or failures could hinder growth.
Supportive ifPricing agreements are working well with German and French authorities.
Worry ifNegotiations stall or fail, delaying product launches.
Why it matters: Successful talks could help VYJUVEK reach more markets and earn more money in Europe.
Supportive ifPricing deals are made with German and French health authorities.
Worry ifIf talks fail or stall, VYJUVEK's market access in these countries will be delayed.
Why it matters: Good data could show that KB803 works well. This would help future product launches.
Supportive ifTop-line results from the IOLITE study for KB803 are reported in Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe study results show no real change compared to the placebo.