Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Kura Oncology, Inc. (KURA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.61-22.98%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KURA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Recognize $45M to $55M in non-cash collaboration revenue in 2026 | The company expects to recognize $45 million to $55 million in collaboration revenue in 2026. | Intact | collaboration revenue falls below $45M in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
KURA is a clinical-stage oncology company with an early commercial product, so this is a speculative growth thesis rather than a proven earnings compounder. The thesis is in watch territory: commercial progress is visible, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort and earnings can be erratic.
The available valuation model indicates a durable premium to peers, but confidence in that estimate is low. The snapshot does not specify exactly what growth expectations are already reflected, and no valuation fragility gates have fired.
Near term, KOMZIFTI’s net product revenue rose from $5.8 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $9.1 million in the second, while new patient starts also increased. Management’s broader clinical goals show mixed progress, and a 46% estimated miss probability plus a history of erratic earnings surprises make the next report an important execution check.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis hinges on sustained KOMZIFTI growth and clinical progress that broadens ziftomenib’s use across AML treatment settings. Near-term results could be pressured by a guidance cut or weaker jobs data, while continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the healthcare backdrop.
KURA has early commercial momentum and active clinical programs, but its premium valuation, ongoing losses, and elevated execution risk leave the 1-to-3-year thesis dependent on continued progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Kura Oncology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is exceed $5.8M revenue in 2026. |
| Improving |
| revenue falls below $5.8M in 2026 |
Revenue: $20.874M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: exceed $5.8M revenue in 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 202620,874,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Broaden ziftomenib opportunity across AML treatment | A primary condition in Kura Oncology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is expand ziftomenib use across AML treatment continuum. | Improving | ziftomenib fails to gain broader clinical adoption or trial results weaken | Qualitative: Strongly reinforced by new resistance data and long-term results Recent news highlights new resistance data and long-term results for ziftomenib in AML, reinforcing the expansion thesis. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.61 → $-2.42 · observed estimates
$0.21B → $0.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.61 | $214,599,127 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.61 | $214,599,127 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.58 | $214,563,900 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.61 | $214,599,127 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.58 | $214,563,900 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.58 | $214,563,900 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.58 | $214,563,900 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.58 | $214,563,900 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.61 | $214,599,127 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.61 | $214,599,127 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.58 | $214,563,900 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.58 | $214,563,900 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.58 | $214,563,900 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.58 | $214,563,900 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.61 | $214,599,127 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.58 | $214,563,900 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.61 | $214,599,127 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.58 | $214,563,900 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.61 | $214,599,127 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.61 | $214,599,127 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.61 | $214,599,127 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.61 | $214,599,127 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.61 | $214,599,127 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.61 | $214,599,127 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.61 | $214,599,127 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.61 | $214,599,127 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.42 | $214,979,730 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.42 | $214,979,730 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.41 | $215,415,632 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.41 | $215,415,632 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.41 | $215,415,632 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.37 | $215,415,478 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.37 | $215,415,478 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.37 | $215,415,478 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.37 | $215,415,478 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.37 | $215,415,478 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.37 | $215,415,478 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.37 | $215,415,478 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.37 | $215,415,478 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.37 | $212,180,486 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.41 | $208,381,880 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.41 | $208,381,880 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.41 | $208,381,880 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.41 | $208,381,880 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.41 | $208,381,880 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.41 | $208,381,880 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.41 | $208,381,880 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.41 | $208,381,880 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.41 | $208,381,880 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.41 | $208,381,880 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.41 | $208,381,880 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.41 | $208,381,880 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.40 | $208,381,880 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.40 | $208,382,023 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.42 | $188,026,794 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.42 | $188,026,794 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.42 | $188,026,794 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.42 | $188,026,794 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.42 | $188,026,794 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.42 | $188,026,794 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.42 | $188,026,794 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.42 | $188,026,794 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.42 | $188,026,794 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.42 | $188,026,794 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.42 | $188,026,794 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.42 | $188,026,794 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.42 | $188,026,794 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.42 | $188,026,794 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.42 | $188,311,870 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.42 | $187,772,989 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.42 | $187,772,989 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.42 | $187,772,989 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.42 | $187,772,989 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.42 | $187,772,989 | 10 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.