LITE
LumentumNASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, LITE has a composite score of 8.7 and a signal label of "mixed." The company momentum score increased by 23.0 points to 58.8, contributing positively to the overall assessment. However, the guidance credibility is at 66.2, and the macro score is relatively low at 32.3, indicating some concerns in the broader economic context. The overall risk is labeled as "elevated," with a valuation score of 23.7 categorized as "expensive."
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.93
- Slope (norm)0.96
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.68 → $2.97 (+10.9% / 30d). 6 raised, 2 cut, 19 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 9 maintained. 79% of analysts rate Buy.
10 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.6% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve revenue growthgrowthon track95% progressprovisional
2/3: “CEO: 'Our forward guidance calls for over 85 percent year-over-year revenue growth.'”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $425.2M in 2025-Q3 to $808.4M in 2026-Q3, indicating strong growth. The trajectory aligns with management's guidance for significant revenue growth.
- 2.Improve operating margincostmixed65% progress
5/5: “CFO: 'Non-GAAP operating margin of 35.0% to 36.0% expected for Q4 FY26.'”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating margin improved from 13.5% in 2025-Q3 to 35.5% in 2026-Q3, showing significant progress. Management's focus on cost management and efficiency is delivering results.
- 3.Enhance EPS performancegrowthmixed65% progress
5/5: “CFO: 'Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $2.85 to $3.05 expected for Q4 FY26.'”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS improved from $0.75 in 2025-Q3 to $1.5 in 2026-Q3, reflecting strong performance. Management's strategy to enhance EPS through growth and margin expansion is delivering results.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-31 | $1.47 – $1.64 | $1.52 | inside |
| 2023-03-31 | $1.00 – $1.15 | $0.75 | miss |
| 2023-06-30 | $0.45 – $0.65 | $0.59 | inside |
| 2023-09-30 | $0.20 – $0.35 | $0.35 | inside |
| 2023-12-31 | $1.20 – $1.45 | $0.32 | miss |
| 2024-06-30 | $-0.05 – $0.10 | $0.06 | inside |
| 2024-09-30 | — | $0.18 | unclassifiable |
| 2025-12-31 | $0.30 – $0.40 | $1.67 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 86%; 252d 80%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −29%. Bad day move −7%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.16 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 0/100, drawdown 43/100, beta 16/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · company_momentum_scoreseverity 38
Company momentum rose by 23.0 points (from 35.8 to 58.8).
As of 2026-05-08, the company momentum score for LITE rose by 23.0 points, increasing from 35.8 to 58.8. The overall signal transitioned to "mixed." The forward view includes an unfavorable scenario for a guidance cut and a favorable scenario for a guidance raise, both newly noted as of 2026-05-05.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 63% of the last 8 guided quarters · 56.3% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve revenue growth
GrowthFocus on achieving significant revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
On trackStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $425.2M in 2025-Q3 to $808.4M in 2026-Q3, indicating strong growth. The trajectory aligns with management's guidance for significant revenue growth.
Revenue grew from $425.2M in 2025-Q3 to $808.4M in 2026-Q395%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Our forward guidance calls for over 85 percent year-over-year revenue growth.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-02-03Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-03provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q2Earnings call
“CEO: 'Our forward guidance calls for over 85 percent year-over-year revenue growth.'”
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“CEO: 'We expect more than 20 percent sequential revenue growth.'”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“CEO: 'Looking ahead, we expect continued strong demand for our AI data center and long-haul solutions.'”
- #2
Improve operating margin
CostNew since 2026-05-05Enhance operating margin through cost management and efficiency improvements.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating margin improved from 13.5% in 2025-Q3 to 35.5% in 2026-Q3, showing significant progress. Management's focus on cost management and efficiency is delivering results.
Operating margin improved from 13.5% in 2025-Q3 to 35.5% in 2026-Q365%CEO/CFO:“CFO: 'Non-GAAP operating margin of 35.0% to 36.0% expected for Q4 FY26.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-05-05Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-05Show history (3)
- 2026-Q3Earnings call
“CFO: 'Non-GAAP operating margin of 35.0% to 36.0% expected for Q4 FY26.'”
- 2026-Q2Earnings call
“CFO: 'Non-GAAP operating margin of 30.0% to 31.0%.'”
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“CFO: 'Non-GAAP operating margin of 20.0% to 22.0%.'”
- #3
Enhance EPS performance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-05Drive improvements in EPS through revenue growth and margin expansion.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS improved from $0.75 in 2025-Q3 to $1.5 in 2026-Q3, reflecting strong performance. Management's strategy to enhance EPS through growth and margin expansion is delivering results.
65%CEO/CFO:“CFO: 'Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $2.85 to $3.05 expected for Q4 FY26.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-05-05Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-05Show history (3)
- 2026-Q3Earnings call
“CFO: 'Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $2.85 to $3.05 expected for Q4 FY26.'”
- 2026-Q2Earnings call
“CFO: 'Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $2.15 to $2.35.'”
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“CFO: 'Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.30 to $1.50.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
41 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LITE Lumentum | +8.7 | expensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-053d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026 , Lumentum Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) reported results for its fiscal third quarter ended March 28, 2026. The Company also posted a slide presentation entitled “Q3 FY26 Conference Call” dated May 5, 2026 on the “Events and Presentations” investor section of its website (www.lumentum.com). A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. Information on the Company’s website is not, and will not be deem…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 74 - 2026-04-081mo agoItem 3.02
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. On April 7, 2026, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) entered into separate privately-negotiated exchange agreements (the “Exchange Agreements”) with certain holders of its outstanding 0.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026 (the “2026 Notes”) and 1.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2029 (the “2029 Notes” and, together with the 2026 Notes, collectively, the “Notes”), pursuant to which the Company will deliver an aggregate of approximately 5.7 million…
capital allocationnegativescore 26 - 2026-03-022mo agoItem 7.01
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filings, unless expre…
legal regulatorynegativescore 11 - 2026-03-022mo agoItem 3.02
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. On March 2, 2026, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) completed the issuance and sale of 2,876,415 shares of the Company’s Series A Convertible Preferred Stock, par value $0.001 per share (the “Series A Preferred Stock”) to NVIDIA Corporation (“NVIDIA”), pursuant to a Securities Purchase Agreement between the parties (the “Purchase Agreement”), dated as of March 2, 2026. The shares of Series A Preferred Stock were sold at a price of $695.31 per shar…
capital allocationnegativescore 11 - 2026-02-033mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 3, 2026 , Lumentum Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) reported results for its fiscal second quarter ended December 27, 2025. The Company also posted a slide presentation entitled “Q2 FY26 Conference Call” dated February 3, 2026 on the “Events and Presentations” investor section of its website (www.lumentum.com). A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. Information on the Company’s website is not, and wi…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 8
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.