Lumentum (LITE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put LITE beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Communications Equipment is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve EPS near $2.95 in Q2 2026: EPS $2.64 vs $2.95 target (-10.5%).
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 69% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 38%, softest on share dilution.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 5% on a typical day and fell roughly 43% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskLumentum's growth relies on strong AI demand to sustain revenue momentum. Revenue surged 109% year over year, and the latest quarter beat expectations. It trades at 34× price-to-sales, significantly above the 3.1× peer median. This suggests the price reflects less growth than anticipated. The primary risk is a potential guidance cut, with a 16% chance of missing next-quarter estimates. Peer multiples imply a price about 48% below where it trades. The thesis is on watch due to pressure on the primary pillar.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. LITE is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 26 analysts currently covering LITE (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 8 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for LITE in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare LITE with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Free account required to save the handoff. No credit card.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Communications Equipment — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put LITE next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Advance optical circuit switches (OCS) and co-packaged optics (CPO) growth driv…
Increased competition may hinder OCS and CPO growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $881.26
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $881.26.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.

Threatens: Advance optical circuit switches (OCS) and co-packaged optics (CPO) growth driv…
Optical shortage may hinder OCS and CPO growth objectives.

Advances: Achieve revenue growth
Long-term supplier agreement supports revenue growth objective.

Advances: Achieve revenue growth
Strong Q4 results indicate revenue growth potential.

Advances: Achieve revenue growth
AI demand positively impacts revenue growth outlook.

Advances: Achieve revenue growth
Lumentum's earnings enhance market outlook for optical networking.

Advances: Achieve revenue growth
Significant revenue growth directly supports growth objective.

Advances: Achieve revenue growth
Guidance supports revenue growth expectations.
