Lilly (Eli) (LLY)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-07-07
$1235.65+2.97%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track LLY free→Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Pharmaceuticals is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 47% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 14%.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 53% growth a year, above the roughly 23% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskEli Lilly's growth in obesity medicines must continue to justify its high price. Revenue grew 56% year over year, and the last quarter beat expectations by 26%. It trades at 41× P/E, above the 26× peer median, indicating high expectations. If LLY cuts guidance after a recent raise, it could hurt credibility. Peer multiples imply a price about 54% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-07. LLY is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 30 analysts currently covering LLY (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 8 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for LLY in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1235.65. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Pharmaceuticals — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Advances: Expand access to obesity medicines
Weight loss drug enhances obesity medicine access.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-07. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $1235.65
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $1235.65.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
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Threatens: Regulatory progress for new products
Regulatory challenges could hinder product progress.
Advances: Expand access to obesity medicines
Blockbuster earnings support obesity medicine growth.
Advances: Regulatory progress for new products
Medicare inclusion boosts regulatory progress.
FDA initiative supports regulatory progress for new products.
Advances: Increase manufacturing capacity
FDA initiative enhances manufacturing capacity for new products.
Collaboration may enhance product pipeline and market access.
Advances: Regulatory progress for new products
Positive trial results enhance regulatory outlook.