LLY
Lilly (Eli)NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, LLY has a composite score of 21.0 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The score reflects medium confidence at 71.9 and is influenced by various factors, including a macro score of 31.5 and a management score of 55.8. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the information may be subject to change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.62
- Slope (norm)-0.37
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $8.12 → $8.75 (+7.7% / 30d). 14 raised, 1 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 77% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 38.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
2 material events in the last 24 months — top 2 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Expand access to obesity medicinesgrowthbehind14% progressprovisional
2/4: “Announced an agreement with the U.S. government to expand access to obesity medicines for millions of Americans.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The agreement with the U.S. government aims to expand access to obesity medicines, but financials do not yet reflect specific revenue impact from this initiative. Revenue in Q4 2025 increased 43% to $19.3 billion, driven by volume growth from Mounjaro and Zepbound, but the specific contribution from expanded access initiatives is not detailed.
- 2.Increase manufacturing capacitysupply chainmixed65% progressprovisional
2/4: “Lilly to build $6 billion facility in Alabama and a $3 billion facility in Europe.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Lilly announced plans to build a $6 billion facility in Alabama and a $3 billion facility in Europe to boost manufacturing capacity. While these expansions are strategic, the financials for Q4 2025 do not yet reflect the impact of these investments. Revenue increased 43% to $19.3 billion, driven by existing product volume growth.
- 3.Regulatory progress for new productsregulatorymixed65% progressprovisional
2/4: “Regulatory progress included FDA approval of Kwikpen for tirzepatide and submissions for orforglipron.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Lilly achieved FDA approval for Kwikpen for tirzepatide and submitted orforglipron for regulatory review. These regulatory milestones are crucial for future growth, but the immediate financial impact is not detailed. Q4 2025 revenue increased 43% to $19.3 billion, primarily driven by existing product volume growth.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 42%; 252d 38%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −24%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLV) — 1.65 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 36/100, drawdown 53/100, beta 35/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 1746.7% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Expand access to obesity medicines
GrowthLilly aims to expand access to obesity medicines through an agreement with the U.S. government.
BehindNewly stated in 2025-Q4. The agreement with the U.S. government aims to expand access to obesity medicines, but financials do not yet reflect specific revenue impact from this initiative. Revenue in Q4 2025 increased 43% to $19.3 billion, driven by volume growth from Mounjaro and Zepbound, but the specific contribution from expanded access initiatives is not detailed.
14%CEO/CFO:“Announced an agreement with the U.S. government to expand access to obesity medicines for millions of Americans.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-04Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Announced an agreement with the U.S. government to expand access to obesity medicines.”
- #2
Increase manufacturing capacity
Supply chainLilly plans to increase manufacturing capacity with new facilities in Alabama and Europe.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Lilly announced plans to build a $6 billion facility in Alabama and a $3 billion facility in Europe to boost manufacturing capacity. While these expansions are strategic, the financials for Q4 2025 do not yet reflect the impact of these investments. Revenue increased 43% to $19.3 billion, driven by existing product volume growth.
65%CEO/CFO:“Lilly to build $6 billion facility in Alabama and a $3 billion facility in Europe.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-04Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Lilly to build $6 billion facility in Alabama and a $3 billion facility in Europe.”
- #3
Regulatory progress for new products
RegulatoryLilly is focusing on regulatory progress with FDA approvals and submissions for new products.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Lilly achieved FDA approval for Kwikpen for tirzepatide and submitted orforglipron for regulatory review. These regulatory milestones are crucial for future growth, but the immediate financial impact is not detailed. Q4 2025 revenue increased 43% to $19.3 billion, primarily driven by existing product volume growth.
65%CEO/CFO:“Regulatory progress included FDA approval of Kwikpen for tirzepatide and submissions for orforglipron.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-04Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Regulatory progress included FDA approval of Kwikpen for tirzepatide.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LLY Lilly (Eli) | +21 | full | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | +18 | full | low |
ABBV AbbVie | +12 | fair | low |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | +24 | fair | elevated |
MRK Merck & Co. | +28 | full | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If health_care sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2022-04-14)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2022-04-14)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.8 pts
- If health_care sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as otherwi…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 60 - 2026-02-043mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as otherwi…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8 - 2025-11-215mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On November 18, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Eli Lilly and Company (the “Company”) elected Carolyn R. Bertozzi, Ph.D as a new member of the Board, effective December 8, 2025. Dr. Bertozzi, 59, is the Anne T. and Robert M. Bass Professor of Chemistry and Professor of Chemical & Systems Biology and Radiology at Stanford University, a…
executive changeneutralscore 1
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.