LMT
Lockheed MartinNYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, LMT has a mixed analyst signal with a composite score of 6.2 and medium confidence at 64.5. The score is influenced by various factors, including a macro score of 30.0 and a momentum score of -20.7, indicating potential challenges. The analysis is provisional, reflecting uncertainties in guidance and sector trends.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.07
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $7.25 → $7.19 (-0.9% / 30d). 6 raised, 9 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 32% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
3 material events in the last 24 months — top 3 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve sales and profit growthgrowthbehind0% progress
4/23: “We reaffirm our 2026 full year guidance with anticipated sales and operating profit growth of approximately 5% and 25% year-over-year, respectively.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $17.084B in 2025-Q4 to $18.609B in 2025-Q3, indicating progress towards the 5% sales growth target. However, the status is marked as 'behind', suggesting limited progress in achieving the 25% profit growth target.
- 2.Maintain strong free cash flowcapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/23: “Expected free cash flow between $6.5 and $6.8 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was -$1.611B in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in maintaining strong free cash flow. The status is marked as 'behind', suggesting limited progress towards the $6.5 to $6.8 billion target.
- 3.Deliver EPS growthgrowthwatchprovisional
4/23: “Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 27%; 252d 27%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −25%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 0.42 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 55/100, drawdown 50/100, beta 42/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -74.2% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve sales and profit growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on achieving approximately 5% sales growth and 25% profit growth year-over-year.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $17.084B in 2025-Q4 to $18.609B in 2025-Q3, indicating progress towards the 5% sales growth target. However, the status is marked as 'behind', suggesting limited progress in achieving the 25% profit growth target.
Revenue grew from $17.084B in 2025-Q4 to $18.609B in 2025-Q30%CEO/CFO:“We reaffirm our 2026 full year guidance with anticipated sales and operating profit growth of approximately 5% and 25% year-over-year, respectively.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-23Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We reaffirm our 2026 full year guidance with anticipated sales and operating profit growth of approximately 5% and 25% year-over-year, respectively.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We expect sales and reported segment operating profit growth of approximately 5% and 25% year-over-year, respectively.”
- #2
Maintain strong free cash flow
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Ensure free cash flow remains between $6.5 billion and $6.8 billion for 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was -$1.611B in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in maintaining strong free cash flow. The status is marked as 'behind', suggesting limited progress towards the $6.5 to $6.8 billion target.
Cash from operating activities was -$1.611B in 2025-Q435%CEO/CFO:“Expected free cash flow between $6.5 and $6.8 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-23Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Expected free cash flow between $6.5 and $6.8 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Free cash flow between $6.5 to $6.8 billion”
- #3
Deliver EPS growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Lockheed Martin projects diluted earnings per share to be between $29.35 and $30.25 for 2026.
Behind →WatchNo scoreCEO/CFO:“Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”8-KSource dated 2026-04-23First seen 2026-05-04provisional
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LMT Lockheed Martin | +6.2 | full | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-23)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-23)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2315d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026 , Lockheed Martin Corporation issued a news release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended March 29, 2026. A copy of the news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 46 - 2026-01-293mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026 , Lockheed Martin Corporation issued a news release reporting its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933,…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7 - 2025-12-095mo agoItem 1.01
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 5, 2025, Lockheed Martin Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a new 364-Day Revolving Credit Agreement (the “364-Day Revolving Credit Agreement”), among the Company, as borrower, the lenders listed therein (the “Lenders”), JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as syndication agent, Citibank, N.A., Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, Mizuho Bank, Ltd. and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as documentation agents, and Bank of Ame…
capital allocationneutralscore 2
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.