LeonaBio Inc (LONA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.34-5.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LONA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
LONA — private placement
Dated 2026-09-22
Other Events. In December 2025, as part of a private placement, LeonaBio, Inc. (the “Company”) issued warrants to purchase an aggregate of 23,031,494 shares of its common stock (the “Series A Common Warrants”). The Series A Common Warrants have an exercise price of $6.35 per share. On September 18, 2026, the Series A Common Warrants became exercisable and will remain exercisable until October 19, 2026, in accordance with the terms and conditions of the Series A Common Warrants. If exercised i…
Why it matters: The Phase 2 trial will test the drug in people with ALS. The Phase 1 study tested it in healthy volunteers.
Watch forLeonaBio starts dosing ALS patients in a Phase 2 trial and reports the trial start by year-end 2026.
Also watch forThe company delays the Phase 2 start beyond 2026 or gives no start date after ELAINE-3 enrollment ends.
Why it matters: Cash and investments fell from $67.7 million in Q1 to $51.1 million in Q2. New warrant cash could help fund trial work.
Watch forThe November 5 update reports more cash from warrant exercises. Cash and investments exceed $51.1 million.
Also watch forThe update reports no warrant cash and cash and investments below $51.1 million.
Why it matters: The trial must show a clear gain in time without disease growth to support its main goal. A miss could weaken the case for lasofoxifene.
Watch forTopline data in 2H 2027 show a clear gain in progression-free survival, based on a blinded review.
Also watch forThe trial misses its main progression-free survival goal, or topline data are delayed beyond 2H 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$269 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $961 loss on $10,000 · 9.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,543 loss on $10,000 · 75.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.