LRCX
Lam ResearchNASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductor Equipment & MaterialsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, LRCX has a composite score of 15.7, categorized as "mild favorable" with a high confidence level of 86.6. The score is influenced by various factors, including a macro score of 32.3 and a management score of 44.1. Key drivers include macroeconomic conditions related to rates, growth, inflation, and labor. The valuation score is 15.8, indicating it is considered expensive.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.05
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.43 → $1.68 (+17.0% / 30d). 24 raised, 0 cut, 28 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 12 maintained. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
9 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.6% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase revenue to $6.6 billion next quartergrowthmixed65% progress
4/22: “Lam is providing guidance for U.S. GAAP Revenue $6.60 Billion +/- $400 Million.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $5.34 billion in 2026-Q2 to $5.84 billion in 2026-Q3. The guidance for next quarter is $6.6 billion, indicating a focus on continued growth. The trajectory shows delivering progress towards the target.
- 2.Maintain gross margin around 50.5%costmixed65% progress
4/22: “Gross margin 50.5% +/- 1% for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross margin increased from 49.0% in 2026-Q2 to a guidance of 50.5% for 2026-Q3. The focus on maintaining margins is evident, with the trajectory showing improvement.
- 3.Achieve operating margin of 36.5%costmixed65% progress
4/22: “Operating margin 36.5% +/- 1% for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating margin increased from 33.9% in 2026-Q2 to a guidance of 36.5% for 2026-Q3. The company is focusing on improving operational efficiency, with the trajectory showing positive progress.
Guidance track record
Last 6 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-31 | $3.01 – $3.41 | $0.37 | miss |
| 2019-06-30 | $3.11 – $3.51 | $0.36 | miss |
| 2019-09-30 | $2.71 – $3.11 | $0.32 | miss |
| 2019-12-31 | $3.51 – $3.91 | $0.40 | miss |
| 2024-03-31 | $6.15 – $7.65 | $0.78 | miss |
| 2024-06-30 | $6.45 – $7.95 | $0.81 | miss |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 59%; 252d 50%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −20%. Bad day move −5%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.14 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 18/100, drawdown 60/100, beta 14/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 5 guided quarters · -88.8% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase revenue to $6.6 billion next quarter
GrowthLam Research aims to achieve a revenue target of $6.6 billion for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $5.34 billion in 2026-Q2 to $5.84 billion in 2026-Q3. The guidance for next quarter is $6.6 billion, indicating a focus on continued growth. The trajectory shows delivering progress towards the target.
65%CEO/CFO:“Lam is providing guidance for U.S. GAAP Revenue $6.60 Billion +/- $400 Million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-22Show history (2)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“Lam is providing guidance for U.S. GAAP Revenue $6.60 Billion +/- $400 Million.”
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Lam is providing guidance for U.S. GAAP Revenue $5.70 Billion +/- $300 Million.”
- #2
Maintain gross margin around 50.5%
CostLam Research aims to maintain a gross margin of approximately 50.5% for the upcoming quarter.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross margin increased from 49.0% in 2026-Q2 to a guidance of 50.5% for 2026-Q3. The focus on maintaining margins is evident, with the trajectory showing improvement.
65%CEO/CFO:“Gross margin 50.5% +/- 1% for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-22Show history (2)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“Gross margin 50.5% +/- 1% for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.”
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Gross margin as a percentage of revenue 49.0% +/- 1%.”
- #3
Achieve operating margin of 36.5%
CostLam Research targets an operating margin of 36.5% for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating margin increased from 33.9% in 2026-Q2 to a guidance of 36.5% for 2026-Q3. The company is focusing on improving operational efficiency, with the trajectory showing positive progress.
65%CEO/CFO:“Operating margin 36.5% +/- 1% for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-22Show history (2)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“Operating margin 36.5% +/- 1% for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.”
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Operating income as a percentage of revenue 33.9% +/- 1%.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LRCX Lam Research | +16 | expensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2216d agoItem 2.02
and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section. Furthermore, the information in this item of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the filings of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 45 - 2026-02-043mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 3, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Lam Research Corporation (the “Company”), pursuant to applicable provisions of the Company’s Amended and Restated Bylaws, appointed Anirudh Devgan, Ph.D., age 56, as a director of the Company, effective immediately. In connection with the director appointment, the size of the board was inc…
executive changeneutralscore 9 - 2026-02-033mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 3, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Lam Research Corporation (the “Company”), pursuant to applicable provisions of the Company’s Amended and Restated Bylaws, appointed Anirudh Devgan, Ph.D., age 56, as a director of the Company, effective immediately. In connection with the director appointment, the size of the board was inc…
executive changeneutralscore 9 - 2025-09-117mo agoItem 4.01
of Form 8-K dated September 11, 2025, of Lam Research Corporation and are in agreement with the statements contained in the first sentence in the first paragraph and the second, third and fourth paragraphs on page 1 therein. We have no basis to agree or disagree with other statements of the registrant contained therein. /s/ Ernst & Young LLP
legal regulatorynegativescore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.