LULU
Lululemon AthleticaNASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, LULU has a composite score of 27.3 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The score reflects high confidence at 86.8 and is influenced by factors such as macroeconomic conditions, management quality, and valuation, which is rated at 82.9 and labeled as "inexpensive." Key drivers include macro growth, rates, inflation, and labor conditions.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.19
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.69 → $2.73 (+1.7% / 30d). 4 raised, 10 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 9% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
6 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve revenue growth of 2% to 4% in 2026growthmixed65% progress
3/17: “For 2026, the Company expects net revenue to be in the range of $11.350 billion to $11.500 billion, representing growth of 2% to 4%.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance for 2026 is $11.350 billion to $11.500 billion, indicating growth of 2% to 4%. Revenue grew from $10.962 billion to $11.500 billion across the period, showing delivering trajectory.
- 2.EPS guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 for 2026growthmixed65% progress
3/17: “Diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $12.10 to $12.30 for the year.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance for 2026 is $12.10 to $12.30, slightly lower than the previous year's range of $12.92 to $13.02. The trajectory shows a cautious outlook with limited progress in EPS growth.
- 3.First quarter 2026 revenue growth of 1% to 3%growthmixed65% progress
3/17: “For the first quarter of 2026, the Company expects net revenue to be in the range of $2.400 billion to $2.430 billion, representing growth of 1% to 3%.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. First quarter 2026 revenue guidance is $2.400 billion to $2.430 billion, indicating growth of 1% to 3%. This represents a cautious start to the year with limited progress in revenue growth.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-07-31 | $0.86 – $0.88 | $0.96 | beat |
| 2019-10-31 | $0.90 – $0.92 | $0.96 | beat |
| 2021-01-31 | — | $2.58 | unclassifiable |
| 2021-07-31 | $1.05 – $1.10 | $1.65 | beat |
| 2022-04-30 | $1.38 – $1.43 | $1.48 | beat |
| 2022-07-31 | $1.89 – $1.94 | $2.20 | beat |
| 2022-10-31 | $1.90 – $1.95 | $2.00 | beat |
| 2023-07-31 | $2.47 – $2.52 | $2.68 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 56%; 252d 50%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −62%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.03 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 16/100, drawdown 0/100, beta 3/100, earnings vol —.
High-volatility growth — strong fundamentals + high realized vol. Typical day ±1.8%.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 7 guided quarters · 14.4% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve revenue growth of 2% to 4% in 2026
GrowthLululemon aims for net revenue growth of 2% to 4% in fiscal year 2026.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance for 2026 is $11.350 billion to $11.500 billion, indicating growth of 2% to 4%. Revenue grew from $10.962 billion to $11.500 billion across the period, showing delivering trajectory.
65%CEO/CFO:“For 2026, the Company expects net revenue to be in the range of $11.350 billion to $11.500 billion, representing growth of 2% to 4%.”10-KSource dated 2026-03-17Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-17Show history (3)
- 2025-Q410-K
“For 2026, the Company expects net revenue to be in the range of $11.350 billion to $11.500 billion, representing growth of 2% to 4%.”
- 2025-Q310-K
“For 2025, the Company now expects net revenue to be in the range of $10.962 billion to $11.047 billion.”
- 2025-Q210-K
“the Company now expects net revenue to be in the range of $10.850 billion to $11.000 billion, representing growth of 2% to 4%.”
- #2
EPS guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 for 2026
GrowthLululemon projects diluted earnings per share to be between $12.10 and $12.30 for fiscal year 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance for 2026 is $12.10 to $12.30, slightly lower than the previous year's range of $12.92 to $13.02. The trajectory shows a cautious outlook with limited progress in EPS growth.
65%CEO/CFO:“Diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $12.10 to $12.30 for the year.”10-KSource dated 2026-03-17Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-17Show history (2)
- 2025-Q410-K
“Diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $12.10 to $12.30 for the year.”
- 2025-Q310-K
“Diluted earnings per share are now expected to be in the range of $12.92 to $13.02 for the year.”
- #3
First quarter 2026 revenue growth of 1% to 3%
GrowthLululemon expects net revenue growth of 1% to 3% for the first quarter of 2026.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. First quarter 2026 revenue guidance is $2.400 billion to $2.430 billion, indicating growth of 1% to 3%. This represents a cautious start to the year with limited progress in revenue growth.
65%CEO/CFO:“For the first quarter of 2026, the Company expects net revenue to be in the range of $2.400 billion to $2.430 billion, representing growth of 1% to 3%.”10-KSource dated 2026-03-17Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-17Show history (1)
- 2025-Q410-K
“For the first quarter of 2026, the Company expects net revenue to be in the range of $2.400 billion to $2.430 billion, representing growth of 1% to 3%.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LULU Lululemon Athletica | +27 | inexpensive | high |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-03-17)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-03-17)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2216d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 21, 2026, lululemon athletica inc. entered into an employment agreement with Heidi O’Neill whereby it agreed to appoint Ms. O’Neill as Chief Executive Officer and as a member of our board of directors, in each case effective September 8, 2026. Meghan Frank and Andre Maestrini are expected to continue serving as interim co-Chief Executive O…
executive changeneutralscore 55 - 2026-04-2810d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Director On April 26, 2026, the board of directors (the “Board”) of lululemon athletica inc. (the “Company”) appointed Esi Eggleston Bracey as a member of the Board, effective April 28, 2026. In connection with Ms. Bracey’s appointment, the Board increased the size of the Board from 10 to 11 members. Ms. Bracey has over 30 years of e…
executive changeneutralscore 44 - 2026-03-171mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Director On March 13, 2026, the board of directors (the "Board") of lululemon athletica inc. (the "Company") appointed Chip Bergh as a member of the Board, effective March 17, 2026. In connection with Mr. Bergh ' s appointment, the Board increased the size of the Board from 9 to 10 members. Mr. Bergh served as President and Chief Exe…
executive changeneutralscore 24 - 2026-03-171mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 17, 2026, lululemon athletica inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended February 1, 2026 and certain other information. A copy of the Company's press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. As previously announced, the Company has scheduled a conference call for 4:30 p.m. Eastern time on March 17, 2026 to discuss its…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 20 - 2025-12-114mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 11, 2025, the board of directors of lululemon and Calvin McDonald mutually agreed that Mr. McDonald will step down from his position as Chief Executive Officer, effective January 31, 2026. To support an orderly transition of his responsibilities, Mr. McDonald will continue with lululemon in a senior advisor capacity through March 31, 20…
executive changeneutralscore 3
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.