LUV
Southwest AirlinesNYSEIndustrialsAirlinesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, LUV has a mixed analyst scoring with a composite score of -8.4 and a medium confidence level of 61.6. The score is influenced by various factors, including a favorable scenario if next-quarter guidance is raised and an unfavorable scenario if the industrials sector trend weakens. The top drivers affecting the score include macro growth, labor, rates, and inflation. This scoring is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.29
- Slope (norm)0.85
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.13 → $0.42 (-62.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 14 cut, 18 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 1.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
10 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-02-10LUV — officer changeimpact 0.45
- 2026-03-12LUV — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.27
- 2026-03-12LUV — M&A activity — Entry into a Material Definitive Agreementimpact 0.23
- 2025-03-31LUV — Principal Accounting Officer transitionimpact 0.19
- 2025-02-07LUV — officer changeimpact 0.16
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Implement business transformation initiativesgrowthwatch52% progress
4/22: “CEO: 'Our broad set of commercial, operational, and cost initiatives is now translating into terrific results.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Operating margin improved from -3.5% in 2025-Q1 to 4.6% in 2026-Q1, reflecting the impact of transformation initiatives. The trajectory indicates delivering results, with a significant margin expansion.
- 2.Enhance customer product offeringsproducton track100% progress
4/22: “CEO: 'Demand for our new product offerings drove record first quarter revenues.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Operating revenues reached a record $7.2 billion in 2026-Q1, up 12.8% year-over-year, driven by new product offerings. The trajectory shows strong customer engagement and revenue growth.
- 3.Optimize network and capacitysupply chainwatchprovisional
4/22: “CEO: 'Continued efforts to optimize the network, including announcing the suspension of operations at Chicago O’Hare.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Capacity increased by 1.5% year-over-year in 2026-Q1, reflecting network optimization efforts. The trajectory shows initial steps in reallocating capacity to higher-performing markets.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 47%; 252d 43%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −33%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.34 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 28/100, drawdown 33/100, beta 66/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Implement business transformation initiatives
GrowthFocus on commercial, operational, and cost initiatives to drive margin expansion and revenue growth.
WatchNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Operating margin improved from -3.5% in 2025-Q1 to 4.6% in 2026-Q1, reflecting the impact of transformation initiatives. The trajectory indicates delivering results, with a significant margin expansion.
52%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Our broad set of commercial, operational, and cost initiatives is now translating into terrific results.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-22Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'Our broad set of commercial, operational, and cost initiatives is now translating into terrific results.'”
- #2
Enhance customer product offerings
ProductIntroduce new products and services to increase customer engagement and revenue.
On trackNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Operating revenues reached a record $7.2 billion in 2026-Q1, up 12.8% year-over-year, driven by new product offerings. The trajectory shows strong customer engagement and revenue growth.
100%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Demand for our new product offerings drove record first quarter revenues.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-22Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'Demand for our new product offerings drove record first quarter revenues.'”
- #3
Optimize network and capacity
Supply chainReallocate capacity to higher-performing markets and optimize network operations.
WatchNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Capacity increased by 1.5% year-over-year in 2026-Q1, reflecting network optimization efforts. The trajectory shows initial steps in reallocating capacity to higher-performing markets.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Continued efforts to optimize the network, including announcing the suspension of operations at Chicago O’Hare.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-22provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'Continued efforts to optimize the network, including announcing the suspension of operations at Chicago O’Hare.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
34 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LUV Southwest Airlines | -8.4 | fair | elevated |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently LOWERED as of 2025-12-05)+16 pts
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2216d agoItem 2.02
The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 45 - 2026-03-121mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information included pursuant to
mna activitypositivescore 17 - 2026-03-121mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On March 11, 2026, Southwest Airlines Co. (the “Company”) entered into a new term loan credit agreement (the “Term Loan Credit Agreement”) with BNP Paribas, as administrative and collateral agent (the “Agent”) and as the initial lender (together with any additional lenders from time to time, the “Lenders”), providing for a $500 million dollar senior secured term loan credit facil…
capital allocationnegativescore 14 - 2026-02-102mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Item 5.02(b) On February 9, 2026, C. David Cush and Gregg A. Saretsky each submitted his resignation from the Board of Directors (“Board”) of Southwest Airlines Co. (the “Company”), effective February 23, 2026. Neither departure from the Board described herein is due to any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company’s opera…
executive changeneutralscore 8 - 2026-01-283mo agoItem 2.02
The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.