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MA

Mastercard

NYSEFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-05-08

$495.48-1.09%
Close 2026-05-08 · 1-day change
The bottom line

As of May 8, 2026, MA has a composite score of 14.7, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 72.5 and reflects strengths in management (83.1) and quality (75.3), while facing challenges from a macro score of -7.7. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the scores and assessments may be subject to change.

Composite +15as of 2026-05-08

Price

Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.

Close 2026-05-08
Daily closes. Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event

Factor signals

Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.

L1

Thesis

is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?
F1 · Recent financial performance
neutral
Mid-cohort
Why this rank
  • Direction share
    1.00
  • Slope (norm)
    -0.11
  • Bonus
    0.00
Operating income, last 4 quarters ($M)
3604477750612140
F2 · Value
expensive
Most expensive 20% of financials cohort
Why this rank
Price
$495.48
TTM EPS
$15.16
Earnings yield
3.1%
P/E (TTM)
32.7

Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3

F3 · Earnings quality
neutral
Mid-cohort cash conversion
Why this rank
TTM NI ($M)
12,874
TTM CFO ($M)
14,780
CFO/NI
1.15
L2

Watch

has something changed worth re-reading?
F4 · Management stability
volatile
Bottom 30% activity in financials cohort· see deep-dive ↓
neutral
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
neutral7 PT revisions / 30d, avg 26.9% above currentfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions

EPS estimate $4.85 → $4.76 (-1.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 17 cut, 26 covering analysts.

Rating actions

0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 92% of analysts rate Buy.

Price target activity

7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.9% above current price.

Material events

0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.

F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
1

Recent 8-K events

1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.

2

Stated priorities

Insufficient transcript history for this ticker.

3

Guidance track record

Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.

L3

Position context

how violent might the path be while I hold it?
Risk profile · realized
backward-looking
lowworst 12m loss −19%, typical day ±1.0%
Why this risk level

Recent vol — 30d annualized 25%; 252d 22%.

Drawdown — Max 1y −19%. Bad day move −2%.

Beta to sector ETF (XLF) 0.99 over 1y.

Liquidity — score 100/100.

Sub-scores — vol 63/100, drawdown 62/100, beta 99/100, earnings vol .

Sector regime
headwind-9.7%sector vs S&P 500, 60d

via XLF

Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.

AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifier
HeatingManiaSquallCrisisEarnings →Mood ↑
HeatingE +0.13 · M +0.71
Single-axisCHASEz +2.97+1.285d

Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.

Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.

3

What changed

The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.

  1. No material changes since the prior snapshot.

No material changes since the prior snapshot.

as of 2026-05-08

4

Management scorecard

How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.

Composite83.1 / 100
Capital allocation90
Earnings discipline92
Margin discipline93
Balance sheet58
Guidance credibility
Post-call reaction51

Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 11.1% avg surprise

as of 2026-05-08
4

What management is focused on

Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.

No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.

5

How this stock is priced

Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.

Compared to peers
11higher = cheaper

Looks more expensive than peers.

Compared to its own history
97higher = cheaper

Cheaper than its own typical valuation.

P/E
28.0x
EV/EBITDA
25.2x
FCF yield
3.9%

P/E over the last 5 years

71 monthly points
fullas of 2026-05-08
7

How this compares

A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.

StockCompositeValuationRisk
MA
Mastercard
+15fulllow
BRK-B
Berkshire Hathaway
+6.0moderate
JPM
JPMorgan Chase
-0.9fulllow
V
Visa Inc.
+20low
BAC
Bank of America
+18inexpensivemoderate
8

Risk — how this stock moves

What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.

A typical day
How much price usually moves either way.
1.0%
A bad day (95th %ile)
A rough but not unusual down day.
-2.1%
Worst 12-month loss
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
-18.9%
Earnings-day move
How much price usually moves on earnings day.
lowas of 2026-05-08
9

What could change this view

Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.

Upside triggers
  • If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
  • If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
  • If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-01-29)+4.0 pts
Downside triggers
  • If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-01-29)-8.0 pts
  • If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
10

Material updates

Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.

  1. 2026-05-071d agoItem 5.02

    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 7, 2026, Mastercard Incorporated (“Mastercard” or the “Company”) announced that Sandra Arkell, the Company’s Corporate Controller and principal accounting officer, will assume the role of Mastercard’s Chief Audit Executive effective August 3, 2026, at which time she will step down from her current role. The Company also announced that effect…

    executive changeneutralscore 78
  2. 2026-04-309d agoItem 2.02

    Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, Mastercard Incorporated issued an earnings release announcing financial results for its first quarter 2026. A copy of the earnings release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. All information in the earnings release is furnished but not filed.

    earnings preannouncementneutralscore 54
11

Score history

The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.

60 snapshots
Data freshness · As of 2026-05-08 · Macro 2026-05-08 · Sector 2026-05-07 · Fundamentals 2026-02-11 · Price 2026-05-07 · Generated 2026-05-08 · Spec 2.3

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.