MAA
Mid-America Apartment CommunitiesNYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MAA has a composite score of 29.8, categorized as "mild favorable" with a medium confidence level of 74.0. The score is influenced by various factors, including a macro score of 26.3 and a quality score of 77.2. Key drivers include macroeconomic conditions related to rates, growth, labor, and inflation. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.07
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.81 → $0.81 (+0.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.9% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain Core FFO guidancegrowthmixed55% progress
4/29: “MAA expects Core FFO for the second quarter of 2026 to be in the range of $2.00 to $2.12 per diluted Share.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Core FFO guidance for Q2 2026 is $2.00 to $2.12 per share, with a midpoint of $2.06. This aligns with previous quarters' guidance, indicating consistent expectations. The trajectory is delivering on maintaining guidance.
- 2.Forecasted Core FFO per Share for 2026growthmixed35% progress
5/4: “2026 Forecasted Core FFO per Share of $8.53 represents the midpoint of our guidance range of $8.37 to $8.69.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Forecasted Core FFO per Share for 2026 is $8.37 to $8.69, with a midpoint of $8.53. This is consistent with the previous year's guidance, showing a stable outlook. The trajectory is delivering on maintaining forecasted guidance.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 21%; 252d 19%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −24%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLRE) — 0.95 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 69/100, drawdown 52/100, beta 95/100, earnings vol —.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -60.7% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain Core FFO guidance
GrowthMAA aims to maintain its Core FFO per share guidance for 2026.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Core FFO guidance for Q2 2026 is $2.00 to $2.12 per share, with a midpoint of $2.06. This aligns with previous quarters' guidance, indicating consistent expectations. The trajectory is delivering on maintaining guidance.
55%CEO/CFO:“MAA expects Core FFO for the second quarter of 2026 to be in the range of $2.00 to $2.12 per diluted Share.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-29Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“MAA expects Core FFO for the first quarter of 2026 to be in the range of $2.05 to $2.17 per diluted Share.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“MAA expects Core FFO for the fourth quarter of 2025 to be in the range of $2.17 to $2.29 per diluted Share.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Q3 2025 [$2.08 … $2.16 … $2.24] CORE FFO/SHARE”
- #2
Forecasted Core FFO per Share for 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04MAA forecasts Core FFO per Share for 2026 to be between $8.37 and $8.69.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Forecasted Core FFO per Share for 2026 is $8.37 to $8.69, with a midpoint of $8.53. This is consistent with the previous year's guidance, showing a stable outlook. The trajectory is delivering on maintaining forecasted guidance.
35%CEO/CFO:“2026 Forecasted Core FFO per Share of $8.53 represents the midpoint of our guidance range of $8.37 to $8.69.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-04Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“2026 Forecasted Core FFO per Share of $8.53 represents the midpoint of our guidance range of $8.35 to $8.71.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“2025 Forecasted Core FFO per Share of $8.74 represents the midpoint of our guidance range of $8.68 to $8.80.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities | +30 | fair | moderate |
WELL Welltower | +7.9 | expensive | low |
PLD Prologis | +10 | full | low |
EQIX Equinix | +22 | fair | moderate |
AMT American Tower | +18 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If real_estate sector trend rises from +0.00 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently INITIATED as of 2026-05-04)+4.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-8.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently INITIATED as of 2026-05-04)-8.0 pts
- If real_estate sector trend falls from +0.00 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2910d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operati ons and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (“MAA”) issued a press release announcing its consolidated results of operations and financial condition as of March 31, 2026 and for the three months then ended (the “Press Release”). Copies of the Press Release and supplemental data schedules are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report. The information in this Current Report under this Item 2.02…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 58
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.