MAR
Marriott InternationalNASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLodgingSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MAR has a composite score of 8.1, classified as a mixed signal. The company momentum score increased significantly by 44.7 points to 4.9, while the composite insight score rose by 12.8 points to 8.1. Additionally, the valuation score improved by 10.1 points, reaching 42.7. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.13
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Buyback / dividend activity on weakening fundamentals — historically a value-trap pattern (48% T+1y positive return vs 69% baseline in IT 2024-26).
Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.06 → $3.05 (-0.2% / 30d). 7 raised, 7 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 10 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
10 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.5% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Return $4.3 billion to shareholders in 2026capital allocationmixed51% progress
2/10: “For full year 2026, we expect... more than $4.3 billion of capital returns to shareholders.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Marriott has consistently communicated its intention to return significant capital to shareholders, with a target of more than $4.3 billion in 2026. However, the financials do not yet show specific progress towards this target, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
- 2.Achieve 4.5% to 5% net rooms growth in 2026growthbehind30% progress
2/10: “We expect worldwide RevPAR to rise 1.5 to 2.5 percent, net rooms growth of 4.5 to 5 percent.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Marriott has set a target for net rooms growth of 4.5% to 5% in 2026. The financials do not yet reflect specific progress towards this growth target, indicating that it is an early-stage priority with no substantive delivery reported yet.
- 3.Maintain adjusted EBITDA growth of 8% to 10% in 2026growthbehind30% progress
2/10: “We expect worldwide RevPAR to rise 1.5 to 2.5 percent, net rooms growth of 4.5 to 5 percent, adjusted EBITDA growth of 8 to 10 percent.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Marriott has set a goal for adjusted EBITDA growth of 8% to 10% in 2026. The financials do not yet show specific progress towards this target, indicating that it remains an aspirational goal with limited substantive delivery at this stage.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 30%; 252d 26%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −13%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.08 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 56/100, drawdown 75/100, beta 8/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · company_momentum_scoreseverity 75
Company momentum rose by 44.7 points (from -39.8 to 4.9).
- score change · composite_insight_scoreseverity 26
Composite insight rose by 12.8 points (from -4.7 to 8.1).
- score change · valuation_scoreseverity 20
Valuation rose by 10.1 points (from 32.6 to 42.7).
As of 2026-05-08, the company momentum score rose by 44.7 points, moving from -39.8 to 4.9. The composite insight score increased by 12.8 points, changing from -4.7 to 8.1. Additionally, the valuation score improved by 10.1 points, rising from 32.6 to 42.7. The overall signal is classified as "mixed," and the confidence label is "medium."
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 5.1% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Return $4.3 billion to shareholders in 2026
Capital allocationMarriott aims to return more than $4.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Marriott has consistently communicated its intention to return significant capital to shareholders, with a target of more than $4.3 billion in 2026. However, the financials do not yet show specific progress towards this target, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
51%CEO/CFO:“For full year 2026, we expect... more than $4.3 billion of capital returns to shareholders.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-10Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-10Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For full year 2026, we expect... more than $4.3 billion of capital returns to shareholders.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We continue to expect to return approximately $4.0 billion to our shareholders in 2025.”
- #2
Achieve 4.5% to 5% net rooms growth in 2026
GrowthMarriott plans to expand its net rooms by 4.5% to 5% in 2026.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Marriott has set a target for net rooms growth of 4.5% to 5% in 2026. The financials do not yet reflect specific progress towards this growth target, indicating that it is an early-stage priority with no substantive delivery reported yet.
30%CEO/CFO:“We expect worldwide RevPAR to rise 1.5 to 2.5 percent, net rooms growth of 4.5 to 5 percent.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-10Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-10Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We expect worldwide RevPAR to rise 1.5 to 2.5 percent, net rooms growth of 4.5 to 5 percent.”
- #3
Maintain adjusted EBITDA growth of 8% to 10% in 2026
GrowthMarriott aims for adjusted EBITDA growth of 8% to 10% for the full year 2026.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Marriott has set a goal for adjusted EBITDA growth of 8% to 10% in 2026. The financials do not yet show specific progress towards this target, indicating that it remains an aspirational goal with limited substantive delivery at this stage.
30%CEO/CFO:“We expect worldwide RevPAR to rise 1.5 to 2.5 percent, net rooms growth of 4.5 to 5 percent, adjusted EBITDA growth of 8 to 10 percent.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-10Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-10Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We expect worldwide RevPAR to rise 1.5 to 2.5 percent, net rooms growth of 4.5 to 5 percent, adjusted EBITDA growth of 8 to 10 percent.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
62 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MAR Marriott International | +8.1 | full | moderate |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-062d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Financial Results for the Quarter Ended March 31, 2026 On May 6, 2026, Marriott International, Inc. ( “ Marriott ” ) is issuing a press release reporting financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of Marriott’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99 and incorporated by reference.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 75 - 2026-02-102mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Financial Results for the Quarter and Year Ended December 31, 2025 On February 10, 2026, Marriott International, Inc. ( “ Marriott ” ) is issuing a press release reporting financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of Marriott’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99 and incorporated by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 9 - 2026-02-202mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On February 18, 2026, Marriott International, Inc. (“we”) entered into a Terms Agreement with Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Fifth Third Securities, Inc., Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and the other Underwriters listed on Schedule I thereto (the “Terms Agreement,” which incorporates by reference the Underwriting Agreement General Terms and Provisions, dated March 3, 2021 (which we previously filed on March 5, 2021 as Exhibit 1.1 to our Current Report on…
capital allocationpositivescore 9 - 2026-02-063mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 3, 2026, Debra L. Lee, who currently serves as a member of the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Marriott International, Inc. (“ Marriott ”) and chair of the Inclusion and Social Impact Committee of the Board, informed Marriott that she will not stand for re-election at Marriott’s 2026 annual meeting of shareholders. Ms. Lee did not…
executive changeneutralscore 7 - 2026-01-093mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 6, 2026, William P. Brown, Group President, United States and Canada, of Marriott International, Inc. (“Marriott” or “the company”), notified Marriott of his intent to step down from his role effective March 28, 2026 and retire from the company effective June 30, 2026.
executive changeneutralscore 4
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.