Maze Therapeutics, Inc. (MAZE)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.21+1.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MAZE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -43.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -23.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MAZE — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-11
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section or Section 11 or 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing by the Company under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act, whether made before or after the da…
Why it matters: Updates on cash after the offering will show how they fund operations and R&D.
Watch forCash runway now goes to 2029 after the $150 million offering.
Also watch forNew cash runway shows funding won't last until 2029.
Why it matters: Earnings will show if Maze is managing losses well. This is an important measure.
Watch forQ2 earnings show operating losses down from $26.55 million in Q1.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows operating losses are still above $26.55 million.
Why it matters: More data could confirm the effectiveness of MZE829 for treating AMKD. This is key for future trials.
Supportive ifPositive topline data reported from the Phase 2 HORIZON trial in broad AMKD.
Worry ifData shows no big change in proteinuria reduction with current treatments.
Why it matters: The CFO change may affect how money is managed and strategy. This may worry investors.
Worry ifA smooth change with no problems in money operations or plans.
Less concerning ifSerious problems or bad money management after the CFO leaves.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$219 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $468 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,451 loss on $10,000 · 54.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Starting this trial is key for MZE782's development. It could expand Maze's treatment options for CKD.
Supportive ifThe Phase 2 trial of MZE782 in CKD is initiated in H1 2027 as planned.
Worry ifThe trial initiation is delayed beyond H1 2027.
Why it matters: Securing this funding is key for Maze's operations through 2028. It shows financial stability.
Supportive ifAn official announcement says the $150M private placement is done.
Worry ifNo announcement of the private placement by the next earnings date on August 11, 2026.
Why it matters: The cash position affects Maze's ability to pay for trials. Good cash helps clinical work.
Supportive ifCash and similar assets are over $495 million after the offering.
Worry ifCash position drops a lot or cannot support operations until 2029.
Why it matters: Starting this trial is a major step in advancing MZE829 for AMKD. It shows confidence in the drug's potential.
Supportive ifThe pivotal trial for MZE829 in moderate AMKD patients without diabetes starts in early 2027.
Worry ifThere may be a delay in starting the pivotal trial or no regulatory feedback.
Why it matters: New data will show if MZE829 can effectively treat broad AMKD patients. This is key for future trials.
Supportive ifNew data from the HORIZON trial shows more drops in proteinuria in late 2026 or early 2027.
Worry ifNo new data or disappointing results from the HORIZON trial.
Why it matters: Topline data will indicate if MZE782 can effectively treat PKU. This is crucial for its market potential.
Supportive ifTopline data from the CIPheR trial of MZE782 in PKU expected in 2027.
Worry ifFailure to achieve meaningful data or delays in the trial.
Why it matters: Updates on cash will show if Maze can fund operations into 2029 as planned. This affects overall stability.
Watch forCash position is still strong, helping operations until 2029.
Also watch forReports show cash position dropping a lot or unexpected costs.