Maze Therapeutics, Inc. (MAZE)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.38+3.50%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MAZE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -43.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -23.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
MAZE — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-10-16
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. On October 15 , 2026, Maze Therapeutics, Inc. (“ Maze ”) entered into an exchange agreement (the “ Exchange Agreement ”) with Frazier Life Sciences Public Fund, L.P., Frazier Life Sciences X, L.P., Frazier Life Sciences XI, L.P. and Frazier Life Sciences XII, L.P. (collectively, the “ Exchanging Stockholder ”), pursuant to which Maze exchanged an aggregate of 2,776,007 shares of Maze’s common stock, par value $0.001 per share (the “ Common Stock ”), he…
Why it matters: New data from three patient groups will test MZE829's early proteinuria results. Strong results could support the planned pivotal trial.
Supportive ifMaze reports data for all three groups. Mean uACR fell in the AMKD groups, with no serious treatment-related safety events.
Worry ifAny group shows no drop in mean uACR, or Maze reports a serious treatment-related safety event.
Why it matters: Maze reported $494.9 million in cash and a runway into 2029. The next results can show if spending still fits that plan.
Worry ifMaze reports cash above $450 million and keeps its runway estimate at least into 2029.
Less concerning ifMaze reports cash below $450 million or cuts its runway estimate to before 2029.
Why it matters: Maze exchanged 2,776,007 common shares with Frazier funds. The full filing can clarify whether the deal changes share count or adds new limits.
Watch forThe full agreement shows no new shares issued and no added limits on Maze's use of cash.
Also watch forThe filing shows added shares, cash payments, or new limits on Maze's use of cash.
Why it matters: The trial will test MZE782 in CKD, a second use for the drug. Its start would keep the program on the timeline Maze gave.
Supportive ifMaze announces that the Phase 2 CKD trial has started by June 30, 2027.
Worry ifMaze reports the trial has not started by June 30, 2027, or moves its start past the first half of 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$197 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $458 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,681 loss on $10,000 · 56.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Starting the trial would move MZE829 beyond its Phase 2 test. The plan depends on HORIZON results and regulator feedback.
Supportive ifMaze announces that the pivotal MZE829 trial has started by June 30, 2027.
Worry ifMaze reports that the trial has not started by June 30, 2027, or that regulator feedback changed the plan.
Why it matters: The CIPheR trial tests whether MZE782 lowers blood phenylalanine in people with PKU. The result will show if the drug has early clinical activity.
Supportive ifMaze reports 2027 CIPheR results. Plasma phenylalanine fell from the trial's starting level.
Worry ifMaze reports no drop in plasma phenylalanine, a safety issue, or a delay past 2027.