Mobility Global, Inc. (MBGL)
USIndustrialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.79+2.43%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
USIndustrialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MBGL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
MBGL — officer change
Dated 2026-10-23
President — Scott Fredericks: The filing discloses the approval of compensatory stock awards, not a change in management or board composition.
Why it matters: The first full standalone quarter will show cash flow after the spin-off. Q2 free cash flow fell 21% year over year, while MBGL began a $0.06 dividend.
Watch forQ3 free cash flow is at least $129 million, the Q2 level, and MBGL pays the declared $0.06 dividend.
Also watch forQ3 free cash flow falls below $129 million and MBGL cuts, delays, or suspends the $0.06 dividend.
Why it matters: These new tools aim to add value for dealers and raise revenue per dealer. Adoption would test whether the launches support growth.
Supportive ifMBGL reports rising dealer use or revenue from Homegrown or Showroom in a later earnings release.
Worry ifMBGL reports weak dealer uptake, or says the products have not added revenue per dealer.
Why it matters: MBGL guided to 6.9% to 7.7% revenue growth for 2026. Q3 is the first full quarter reported as a standalone company.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 6.9% year over year, the low end of full-year guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth is at least 6.9% year over year, and full-year guidance stays in place or rises.
Why it matters: The 2026 target is about 40%. A lower margin would mark a drop from the 43% margin reported in Q2.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is below 40%. Or full-year guidance is below $745 million to $760 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is at least 40%, and full-year guidance stays in range or rises.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$154 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $376 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,296 loss on $10,000 · 23.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.