MCHP
Microchip TechnologyNASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MCHP has a composite score of 3.8 and a confidence label of "medium," which reflects a change from "high." The mixed signal is influenced by various factors, including macroeconomic conditions and sector trends, with a total risk score of 64.9 and an elevated risk label.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.46
- Slope (norm)0.87
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.59 → $0.59 (+0.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 23 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 77% of analysts rate Buy.
10 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
12 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-02-11MCHP — share buyback announcedimpact 0.32
- 2026-02-11MCHP — private placementimpact 0.25
- 2026-02-11MCHP — capital allocation — Unregistered Sale of Equity Securitiesimpact 0.25
- 2026-02-11MCHP — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.25
- 2025-05-02MCHP — President transitionimpact 0.21
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain gross margin above 60%costmixed65% progress
5/7: “We expect non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 62.25% to 63.25%.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross margin guidance increased from 59.5%-60.5% in 2026-Q2 to 62.25%-63.25% in 2026-Q3, indicating progress in maintaining margins above 60%. The trajectory is delivering on management's stated priority.
- 2.Revenue growth to $1.455 billion in 2026-Q4growthmixed65% progress
5/7: “We expect net sales for the June quarter to be in the range of approximately $1.442 billion to $1.469 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $1.260 billion in 2026-Q2 to $1.455 billion in 2026-Q3, showing a positive trajectory towards management's growth target.
- 3.Capex to remain below $100 million in FY 2026capital allocationwatchprovisional
11/6: “Capital expenditures for all of fiscal 2026 are expected to be at or below $100 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently guided that capital expenditures will remain below $100 million for fiscal 2026. This recurring focus indicates a commitment to disciplined capital allocation, though specific quarterly capex figures are not provided.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-06-30 | $0.13 – $0.31 | $0.78 | beat |
| 2020-09-30 | $0.17 – $0.37 | $0.78 | beat |
| 2020-12-31 | $0.38 – $0.45 | $0.81 | beat |
| 2021-03-31 | $0.52 – $0.58 | $0.93 | beat |
| 2021-06-30 | $0.75 – $0.79 | $0.99 | beat |
| 2021-09-30 | $0.94 – $0.98 | $1.07 | beat |
| 2022-03-31 | $0.66 – $0.68 | $1.35 | beat |
| 2025-03-31 | $-0.24 – $-0.14 | $0.11 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 48%; 252d 45%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −34%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.06 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 25/100, drawdown 31/100, beta 6/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · confidence_labelseverity 20
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of May 8, 2026, the confidence label for MCHP changed from 'high' to 'medium'. This reflects a label change with a severity score of 20.0. Additionally, the forward view indicates an unfavorable scenario with a composite delta estimate of -8.0 if next-quarter guidance is cut, and another unfavorable scenario with a composite delta estimate of -7.3 if the rates state reverses from -0.37 to +0.37.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 7 guided quarters · 102.6% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain gross margin above 60%
CostNew since 2026-05-07Management aims to keep gross margin above 60% through operational efficiencies and pricing strategies.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross margin guidance increased from 59.5%-60.5% in 2026-Q2 to 62.25%-63.25% in 2026-Q3, indicating progress in maintaining margins above 60%. The trajectory is delivering on management's stated priority.
Gross margin guidance increased from 59.5%-60.5% to 62.25%-63.25%65%CEO/CFO:“We expect non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 62.25% to 63.25%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-07Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-07Show history (3)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“We expect non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 62.25% to 63.25%.”
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“GAAP (5) Non-GAAP Adjustments (1) Non-GAAP (1) Gross Profit 59.5% to 60.5%”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Gross margin guidance was set at 59.5% to 60.5%.”
- #2
Revenue growth to $1.455 billion in 2026-Q4
GrowthNew since 2026-05-07Management targets revenue growth to reach $1.455 billion in the June 2026 quarter.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $1.260 billion in 2026-Q2 to $1.455 billion in 2026-Q3, showing a positive trajectory towards management's growth target.
Revenue guidance increased from $1.260 billion to $1.455 billion65%CEO/CFO:“We expect net sales for the June quarter to be in the range of approximately $1.442 billion to $1.469 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-07Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-07Show history (3)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“We expect net sales for the June quarter to be in the range of approximately $1.442 billion to $1.469 billion.”
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“We expect March quarter net sales of $1.260 billion plus or minus $20.0 million.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We expect our net sales in the June 2025 quarter to be between $1.020 billion and $1.070 billion.”
- #3
Capex to remain below $100 million in FY 2026
Capital allocationManagement plans to keep capital expenditures below $100 million for fiscal year 2026.
WatchStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently guided that capital expenditures will remain below $100 million for fiscal 2026. This recurring focus indicates a commitment to disciplined capital allocation, though specific quarterly capex figures are not provided.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Capital expenditures for all of fiscal 2026 are expected to be at or below $100 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-11-06Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-11-06provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures for all of fiscal 2026 are expected to be at or below $100 million.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures for all of fiscal 2026 are expected to be at or below $100 million.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures for all of fiscal 2026 are expected to be at or below $100 million.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
69 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MCHP Microchip Technology | +3.8 | expensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071d agoItem 2.02
in this report on Form 8-K is being furnished as contemplated by General Instruction B(2) to Form 8-K and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. On May 7, 2026, we announced the results of our operations for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026. The complete release is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncement—score 64 - 2026-02-112mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Purchase Agreement On February 9, 2026, Microchip Technology Incorporated (the “Company”) entered into a purchase agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, BofA Securities, Inc. and Truist Securities, Inc., as representatives of the several initial purchasers (the “Initial Purchasers”), to issue and sell $800 million aggregate principal amount of its 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030 (the “Initial Notes”). In addition,…
capital allocationpositivescore 9 - 2026-02-053mo agoItem 2.02
in this report on Form 8-K is being furnished as contemplated by General Instruction B(2) to Form 8-K and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. On February 5, 2026, we announced the results of our operations for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026. The complete release is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 9 - 2026-02-112mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
capital allocationnegativescore 7 - 2026-02-112mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On February 9, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its intention to offer, subject to market and other conditions, $600 million aggregate principal amount of the Notes in a private placement to qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. On February 10, 2026, the Company issued a press release annou…
capital allocationneutralscore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.