MCK
McKesson CorporationNYSEHealth CareMedical DistributionSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MCK has a composite score of 16.4 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 74.0 and a moderate risk label. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as labor, rates, growth, and inflation, with a notable unfavorable scenario related to potential guidance cuts and sector trends. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.16
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Joint read: strong + robust historically delivered 80%+ NI-grew rate over T+1y in IT 2024–26 (small N).
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $9.72 → $9.66 (-0.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 27.8% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
6 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Raise EPS guidance for fiscal 2026growthbehind30% progressprovisional
2/4: “We are raising and narrowing our guidance range for fiscal 2026 Adjusted EPS to $38.80 to $39.20.”
Why this status
Stated in 5 of last 5 quarters. EPS guidance has been consistently raised, reaching $38.80 to $39.20 for fiscal 2026. Revenue grew from $95.29B in 2025-Q3 to $106.16B in 2026-Q3, supporting the upward revisions. The trajectory is delivering on management's guidance increases.
- 2.Reaffirm fiscal 2026 outlookgrowthmixed65% progress
3/6: “McKesson Corporation has reaffirmed fiscal 2026 full year outlook as previously issued.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 5 quarters. Management reaffirmed the fiscal 2026 outlook, maintaining confidence in its projections. Revenue increased from $95.29B in 2025-Q3 to $106.16B in 2026-Q3, indicating alignment with the reaffirmed outlook. The trajectory shows consistent performance with management's expectations.
- 3.Enter new credit agreementcapital allocationmixed64% progress
4/6: “McKesson entered into a Credit Agreement with a $750.0 million senior secured term loan facility.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q3. McKesson entered into a new credit agreement with a $750.0 million senior secured term loan facility. This aligns with their capital allocation strategy. The financials show a strong cash from operating activities of $2.73B in 2026-Q3, supporting the company's ability to manage new financial obligations.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 28%; 252d 28%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −26%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLV) — 0.43 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 53/100, drawdown 48/100, beta 43/100, earnings vol —.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 43.9% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Raise EPS guidance for fiscal 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Management has consistently raised EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 over several quarters.
Mixed →BehindStated in 5 of last 5 quarters. EPS guidance has been consistently raised, reaching $38.80 to $39.20 for fiscal 2026. Revenue grew from $95.29B in 2025-Q3 to $106.16B in 2026-Q3, supporting the upward revisions. The trajectory is delivering on management's guidance increases.
EPS guidance raised to $38.80 to $39.20 for fiscal 202630%CEO/CFO:“We are raising and narrowing our guidance range for fiscal 2026 Adjusted EPS to $38.80 to $39.20.”10-KSource dated 2026-02-04Stated 5 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (5)
- 2026-Q310-K
“We are raising and narrowing our guidance range for fiscal 2026 Adjusted EPS to $38.80 to $39.20.”
- 2026-Q210-K
“We are raising our fiscal 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance by $0.30 to a range of $38.35 to $38.85.”
- 2026-Q110-K
“McKesson is raising and narrowing fiscal 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance to $38.05 to $38.55.”
- 2025-Q410-K
“We are raising our fiscal 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $37.10 to $37.90.”
- 2025-Q310-K
“McKesson is increasing its full year Adjusted EPS guide from $36.75 to $37.55.”
- #2
Reaffirm fiscal 2026 outlook
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Management has reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 outlook, maintaining confidence in its projections.
MixedStated in 2 of last 5 quarters. Management reaffirmed the fiscal 2026 outlook, maintaining confidence in its projections. Revenue increased from $95.29B in 2025-Q3 to $106.16B in 2026-Q3, indicating alignment with the reaffirmed outlook. The trajectory shows consistent performance with management's expectations.
65%CEO/CFO:“McKesson Corporation has reaffirmed fiscal 2026 full year outlook as previously issued.”10-KSource dated 2026-03-06Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q310-K
“McKesson Corporation has reaffirmed fiscal 2026 full year outlook as previously issued.”
- 2025-Q410-K
“McKesson is reaffirming its full year effective tax rate guidance of 17% to 19%.”
- #3
Enter new credit agreement
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04McKesson has entered into new credit agreements to support its capital allocation strategy.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q3. McKesson entered into a new credit agreement with a $750.0 million senior secured term loan facility. This aligns with their capital allocation strategy. The financials show a strong cash from operating activities of $2.73B in 2026-Q3, supporting the company's ability to manage new financial obligations.
$750.0 million senior secured term loan facility64%CEO/CFO:“McKesson entered into a Credit Agreement with a $750.0 million senior secured term loan facility.”8-KSource dated 2026-04-06Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q38-K
“McKesson entered into a Credit Agreement with a $750.0 million senior secured term loan facility.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MCK McKesson Corporation | +16 | inexpensive | moderate |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | +21 | full | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | +18 | full | low |
ABBV AbbVie | +12 | fair | low |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | +24 | fair | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If health_care sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.8 pts
- If health_care sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, McKesson Corporation (the “Company”) reported the Company’s preliminary results for the quarter and fiscal year ended on March 31, 2026 which are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “Commission”), but shall not be deemed “filed” with the Commission for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of…
earnings preannouncement—score 64 - 2026-04-2810d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 24, 2026, McKesson Corporation (“McKesson” or the “Company”) entered into a Credit Agreement (the “New Revolving Credit Facility”) among the Company, as borrower, the lenders party thereto, Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, and the other parties thereto. The New Revolving Credit Facility replaces the Company’s existing $1.0 billion 364-day senior unsecured revolving credit facility, dated as of May 8, 2025 (the “Existing 364-D…
capital allocationneutralscore 52 - 2026-04-2810d agoItem 1.02
I tem 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information in
mna activitynegativescore 41 - 2026-04-061mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 1, 2026, certain of McKesson Corporation’s (the “Company”) subsidiaries, including McKesson Medical-Surgical Top Holdings, Inc. (the “Borrower”), entered into a credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with the lenders and issuing banks party thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent and collateral agent providing for (i) a $750.0 million senior secured term “A” loan facility due 2031 (the “Term Loan A-1 Facility”), (i…
capital allocationneutralscore 31 - 2026-03-052mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Certain Officers; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Retirement of Principal Financial Officer On March 3, 2026, Britt J. Vitalone, the company’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, gave notice of his intention to retire from that role. Mr. Vitalone’s last day as our CFO will be May 28, 2026, and he will remain an employee through July 1, 2026. Mr. Vitalone thereafter will serve as a non-employee advisor to the company…
executive changeneutralscore 18
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.