MCO
Moody's CorporationNYSEFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MCO has a composite score of 8.3, indicating a mixed signal. The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 73.9 and a moderate risk label. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, labor, and inflation, with a macro score of -7.7 and sector score of 14.6. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.18
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $4.28 → $4.19 (-2.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 15 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 70% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.High-single-digit revenue growth for 2026growthbehind0% progress
4/22: “Reaffirmed guidance for full-year 2026 MCO revenue growth in the high-single digit percent range.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. MCO revenue grew from $1.924 billion in 2025-Q1 to $2.079 billion in 2026-Q1, an 8% increase. The trajectory aligns with the high-single-digit growth target for 2026.
- 2.Increase share repurchases to $2.5 billion in 2026capital allocationmixed35% progress
4/22: “Raised full-year share repurchase guidance to approximately $2.5 billion.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Moody's returned approximately $1.7 billion to shareholders in Q1 2026, indicating progress towards the $2.5 billion share repurchase target for the year.
- 3.Maintain adjusted operating margin at 52%-53%costmixed63% progress
4/22: “Adjusted Operating Margin expanded by 150 bps to 53.2%.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. MCO's adjusted operating margin expanded from 51.1% in 2025-Q4 to 53.2% in 2026-Q1, aligning with the 52%-53% target for 2026, indicating delivery on this priority.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 24%; 252d 26%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −24%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 1.01 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 56/100, drawdown 53/100, beta 99/100, earnings vol —.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
High-single-digit revenue growth for 2026
GrowthMoody's aims for high-single-digit percent revenue growth for the full year 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. MCO revenue grew from $1.924 billion in 2025-Q1 to $2.079 billion in 2026-Q1, an 8% increase. The trajectory aligns with the high-single-digit growth target for 2026.
0%CEO/CFO:“Reaffirmed guidance for full-year 2026 MCO revenue growth in the high-single digit percent range.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-22Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Reaffirmed guidance for full-year 2026 MCO revenue growth in the high-single digit percent range.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“MCO revenue was $7.7 billion, a 9% increase from the prior-year period.”
- #2
Increase share repurchases to $2.5 billion in 2026
Capital allocationMoody's plans to increase its share repurchase program to approximately $2.5 billion for 2026.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Moody's returned approximately $1.7 billion to shareholders in Q1 2026, indicating progress towards the $2.5 billion share repurchase target for the year.
35%CEO/CFO:“Raised full-year share repurchase guidance to approximately $2.5 billion.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-22Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Raised full-year share repurchase guidance to approximately $2.5 billion.”
- #3
Maintain adjusted operating margin at 52%-53%
CostMoody's aims to maintain its adjusted operating margin between 52% and 53% for 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. MCO's adjusted operating margin expanded from 51.1% in 2025-Q4 to 53.2% in 2026-Q1, aligning with the 52%-53% target for 2026, indicating delivery on this priority.
63%CEO/CFO:“Adjusted Operating Margin expanded by 150 bps to 53.2%.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-22Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Adjusted Operating Margin expanded by 150 bps to 53.2%.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“MCO's adjusted operating margin was 51.1%.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MCO Moody's Corporation | +8.3 | full | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2217d agoItem 2.02
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION 3
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 45
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.