MDLZ
Mondelez InternationalNASDAQConsumer StaplesConfectionersSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MDLZ has a composite score of 4.0 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects a medium confidence level of 74.2%. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as labor, inflation, rates, and growth, with a moderate total risk score of 30.5. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.22
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.69 → $0.68 (-1.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 11 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.6% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
6 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-01-30MDLZ — CFO transitionimpact 0.62
- 2025-05-27MDLZ — CEO transitionimpact 0.31
- 2026-02-18MDLZ — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off ‑ Bal…impact 0.25
- 2025-01-27MDLZ — CFO transitionimpact 0.23
- 2026-02-18MDLZ — M&A activity — Entry into a Material Definitive Agreementimpact 0.21
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Organic Net Revenue growth of flat to 2%growthbehind0% progress
4/28: “The company reaffirms Organic Net Revenue growth in the range of flat to 2 percent.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Organic Net Revenue grew by 3.0% in 2026-Q1, exceeding the flat to 2% target range. The company is delivering on its growth priority.
- 2.Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billioncapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/28: “The company also expects 2026 Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free Cash Flow was $0.2 billion in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards the $3 billion target for the year. The trajectory shows a need for acceleration.
- 3.Adjusted EPS growth of flat to 5%growthbehind0% progress
4/28: “Adjusted EPS growth in the range of flat to 5 percent on a constant currency basis.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EPS was $0.67 in 2026-Q1, down 14.9% on a constant currency basis, indicating a decline rather than the targeted growth. The trajectory shows a need for improvement.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 23%; 252d 22%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −26%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLP) — 1.17 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 63/100, drawdown 48/100, beta 83/100, earnings vol —.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Organic Net Revenue growth of flat to 2%
GrowthThe company aims for Organic Net Revenue growth in the range of flat to 2% for 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Organic Net Revenue grew by 3.0% in 2026-Q1, exceeding the flat to 2% target range. The company is delivering on its growth priority.
0%CEO/CFO:“The company reaffirms Organic Net Revenue growth in the range of flat to 2 percent.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-28Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“The company reaffirms Organic Net Revenue growth in the range of flat to 2 percent.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“For 2026, the company expects Organic Net Revenue growth in the range of flat to 2 percent.”
- #2
Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billion
Capital allocationThe company expects Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billion for 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free Cash Flow was $0.2 billion in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards the $3 billion target for the year. The trajectory shows a need for acceleration.
35%CEO/CFO:“The company also expects 2026 Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billion.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-28Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“The company also expects 2026 Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“The company also expects 2026 Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billion.”
- #3
Adjusted EPS growth of flat to 5%
GrowthThe company targets Adjusted EPS growth in the range of flat to 5% on a constant currency basis for 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EPS was $0.67 in 2026-Q1, down 14.9% on a constant currency basis, indicating a decline rather than the targeted growth. The trajectory shows a need for improvement.
0%CEO/CFO:“Adjusted EPS growth in the range of flat to 5 percent on a constant currency basis.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-28Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Adjusted EPS growth in the range of flat to 5 percent on a constant currency basis.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Adjusted EPS growth in the range of flat to 5 percent on a constant currency basis.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MDLZ Mondelez International | +4.0 | full | moderate |
WMT Walmart | -9.3 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | +3.9 | expensive | moderate |
PG Procter & Gamble | +15 | fair | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | +14 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_staples sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.2 pts
- If consumer_staples sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2810d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026 , we issued a press release announcing earnings for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report. This information, including Exhibit 99.1, will not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that section and it will not be incorporated…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 52 - 2026-02-182mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information described below under “
mna activitypositivescore 11 - 2026-02-182mo agoItem 1.02
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. 364‑Day Revolving Credit Agreement In connection with entry into the 364‑Day Revolving Credit Agreement described below under “
mna activitynegativescore 8 - 2026-02-182mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off ‑ Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. 364‑Day Revolving Credit Agreement On February 18, 2026, we entered into a revolving credit agreement (the “364‑Day Revolving Credit Agreement”) for a 364‑day senior unsecured revolving credit facility in an aggregate principal amount of $1.5 billion with the lenders named in the 364‑Day Revolving Credit Agreement, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent. Under t…
capital allocationnegativescore 8 - 2026-01-303mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . On January 29, 2026, Mondelēz International, Inc. (Nasdaq: MDLZ) (the “Company”) announced that Luca Zaramella has been appointed as its Chief Operating Officer, effective February 1, 2026, in addition to his role as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Zaramella, age 56, became Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Off…
executive changeneutralscore 8
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.