MDT
MedtronicNYSEHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MDT has a composite score of 17.8 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 76.1 and a moderate risk label. Key drivers include macro factors related to labor, rates, growth, and inflation. The assessment is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.02
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.37 → $1.38 (+0.7% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 62% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.4% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
6 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve FY26 organic revenue growthgrowthmixed50% progressprovisional
11/18: “The company raised its FY26 organic revenue growth guidance to approximately 5.5%.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $8.29B in 2025-Q3 to $9.02B in 2026-Q3, indicating progress towards the 5.5% organic growth target. The trajectory shows delivering on this priority.
- 2.Maintain non-GAAP EPS guidancegrowthmixed50% progress
3/24: “Medtronic announced that it now expects non-GAAP EPS for FY26 to be in the range of $5.50 to $5.54.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS guidance was revised from $5.62-$5.66 to $5.50-$5.54, reflecting a downward adjustment. The trajectory indicates limited progress in maintaining the original EPS guidance.
- 3.Address IT security breachregulatorymixed0% progress
4/24: “Medtronic announced that an unauthorized third party had accessed data in certain of the Company’s IT systems.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q3. The company is addressing an IT security breach, with no specific financial impact disclosed yet. The priority is in its initial stages with limited substantive delivery so far.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 23%; 252d 20%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −27%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLV) — 0.68 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 67/100, drawdown 47/100, beta 68/100, earnings vol —.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 3 guided quarters · -46.0% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve FY26 organic revenue growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Medtronic aims to achieve approximately 5.5% organic revenue growth for FY26.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $8.29B in 2025-Q3 to $9.02B in 2026-Q3, indicating progress towards the 5.5% organic growth target. The trajectory shows delivering on this priority.
50%CEO/CFO:“The company raised its FY26 organic revenue growth guidance to approximately 5.5%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-11-18Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“The company reiterates FY26 organic revenue growth of approximately 5.5%.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The company raised its FY26 organic revenue growth guidance to approximately 5.5%.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The company continues to expect FY26 organic revenue growth of approximately 5%.”
- #2
Maintain non-GAAP EPS guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Medtronic aims to maintain its FY26 non-GAAP EPS guidance in the range of $5.50 to $5.54.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS guidance was revised from $5.62-$5.66 to $5.50-$5.54, reflecting a downward adjustment. The trajectory indicates limited progress in maintaining the original EPS guidance.
50%CEO/CFO:“Medtronic announced that it now expects non-GAAP EPS for FY26 to be in the range of $5.50 to $5.54.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-03-24Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“Medtronic announced that it now expects non-GAAP EPS for FY26 to be in the range of $5.50 to $5.54.”
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“The company reiterates FY26 diluted non-GAAP EPS guidance of $5.62 to $5.66.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Medtronic now expects underlying FY26 diluted non-GAAP EPS growth to be approximately 4.5%.”
- #3
Address IT security breach
RegulatoryNew since 2026-05-04Medtronic is focused on addressing the IT security breach and enhancing cybersecurity measures.
Watch →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q3. The company is addressing an IT security breach, with no specific financial impact disclosed yet. The priority is in its initial stages with limited substantive delivery so far.
0%CEO/CFO:“Medtronic announced that an unauthorized third party had accessed data in certain of the Company’s IT systems.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-24Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“Medtronic announced that an unauthorized third party had accessed data in certain of the Company’s IT systems.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MDT Medtronic | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | +21 | full | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | +18 | full | low |
ABBV AbbVie | +12 | fair | low |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | +24 | fair | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently LOWERED as of 2026-03-24)+16 pts
- If health_care sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.8 pts
- If health_care sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-2.9 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2414d agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure On April 24, 2026, Medtronic plc (“Medtronic” or the “Company”) announced that an unauthorized third party had accessed data in certain of the Company’s information technology (“IT”) systems. Upon identifying the unauthorized access, the Company promptly took steps to contain the incident, activated its incident response protocols, and engaged leading external cybersecurity experts to support its investigation and remediation efforts. Based on its investigation to dat…
legal regulatorynegativescore 37 - 2026-03-241mo agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure On March 18, 2026, MiniMed Group, Inc. (MiniMed), a consolidated subsidiary of Medtronic plc (Company) announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has cleared the MiniMed Flex™, a next-generation discreet, smartphone-controlled insulin pump. The clearance of the MiniMed Flex by the FDA was several months earlier than anticipated, and will facilitate the earlier commercialization of this key MiniMed product. The research and development of the MiniMed Fl…
legal regulatorynegativescore 18 - 2026-02-172mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 17, 2026, Medtronic plc, a public limited company organized under the laws of Ireland, issued a press release announcing its third quarter fiscal year 2026 financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 10 - 2025-11-036mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On November 1, 2025, Gregory L. Smith, Executive Vice President, Enterprise Operations of Medtronic plc (the Company), notified the Company of his decision to retire from the Company, effective December 2, 2025, and to join a private equity-held organization. As of that date, Mr. Smith will be eligible for retirement treatment of his outstanding eq…
executive changeneutralscore 1
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.