NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-07-07
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $615.58. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $616 META trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 18× p/e peer median — but our blended $399 fair value sits well below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $655 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 242% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 7.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $14.30/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $556.53 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $559.04 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $255.72 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $105.95 | 3.1 | 39.24 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $242.59 | 12.9 | 18.82 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $557.95 | 18.2 | 30.58 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $99.84 | 1.2 | 83.84 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $101.36 | 3.3 | 30.58 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $167.81 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $615.58 | 20.1 | 30.58 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $586.01 | 18.2 | 32.12 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $368.94 | 12.9 | 28.62 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $796.18 | 18.2 | 43.64 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $175.13 | 1.2 | 147.05 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $144.64 | 3.3 | 43.64 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $878.43 | 20.1 | 43.64 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $487.93 | 12.9 | 37.85 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $1052.95 | 18.2 | 57.71 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $231.61 | 1.2 | 194.48 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $191.28 | 3.3 | 57.71 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $1161.72 | 20.1 | 57.71 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
