Meta Platforms (META)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$616.77+1.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · META
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $617 the market pays 21× p/e — above the 13× p/e peer median but in line with its own 20× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $452 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $595–$886. Note: our $452 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($595–$886). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $665 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $735.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $903.68 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $414.65 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $260.47 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$595.00 – $886.00 (median $735.00) · 15 analysts · as of 2026-08-31
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 220% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 7.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $15.17/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $87.11 |
| 3.5 |
| 32.78 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $182.27 | 11.4 | 15.97 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $395.64 | 13.4 | 29.62 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $86.85 | 1.0 | 88.95 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $398.62 | 13.5 | 29.62 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $168.51 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $589.31 | 19.9 | 29.62 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $411.15 | 13.4 | 30.78 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $277.21 | 11.4 | 24.29 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $577.71 | 13.4 | 43.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $148.35 | 1.0 | 151.94 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $582.06 | 13.5 | 43.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $860.50 | 19.9 | 43.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $366.60 | 11.4 | 32.12 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $764.02 | 13.4 | 57.20 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $196.19 | 1.0 | 200.94 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $769.77 | 13.5 | 57.20 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $1138.01 | 19.9 | 57.20 | Analyst | high |