MGM
MGM ResortsNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MGM has a composite score of 1.9, indicating a mixed signal with medium confidence at 72.8. The score is influenced by various factors, including a macro score of 17.9 and a momentum score of -42.8, suggesting elevated risk. The valuation score is 84.2, labeled as inexpensive. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.87
- Slope (norm)0.08
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Buyback / dividend activity on weakening fundamentals — historically a value-trap pattern (48% T+1y positive return vs 69% baseline in IT 2024-26).
Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.62 → $0.63 (+2.8% / 30d). 3 raised, 7 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 9 maintained. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -0.9% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
2 material events in the last 24 months — top 2 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Enhance Las Vegas offeringsgrowthwatchprovisional
7/30: “CEO: 'Our outlook on the business remains bright, particularly in Las Vegas.'”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue showed a slight decline from $4.40B in 2025-Q2 to $4.20B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress. The focus remains on enhancing Las Vegas offerings through room remodels and convention bookings, but financial results have not yet reflected significant growth.
- 2.Leverage all-inclusive promotiongrowthmixed31% progress
4/29: “CEO: 'Our newly launched all-inclusive promotion is driving strength.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue decreased from $4.38B in 2025-Q1 to $4.20B in 2025-Q4, showing limited impact from the all-inclusive promotion so far. Management emphasizes this promotion as a growth driver, but financial results have yet to demonstrate its effectiveness.
- 3.Exceed $150 million implementationcapital allocationwatchprovisional
4/30: “CFO: 'We expect to exceed $150 million in implementation in the year.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q1. Financials do not provide specific updates on the $150 million implementation target. While management has set this as a capital allocation priority, the lack of detailed financial disclosure on progress limits assessment of delivery.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 27%; 252d 36%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −23%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 40/100, drawdown 55/100, beta 4/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Enhance Las Vegas offerings
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on improving Las Vegas offerings through room remodels and convention bookings.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue showed a slight decline from $4.40B in 2025-Q2 to $4.20B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress. The focus remains on enhancing Las Vegas offerings through room remodels and convention bookings, but financial results have not yet reflected significant growth.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Our outlook on the business remains bright, particularly in Las Vegas.'”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-07-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We are seeing signs of strength driven by solid convention bookings.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Our outlook on the business remains bright, particularly in Las Vegas.”
- #2
Leverage all-inclusive promotion
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Utilize the newly launched all-inclusive promotion to drive growth.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue decreased from $4.38B in 2025-Q1 to $4.20B in 2025-Q4, showing limited impact from the all-inclusive promotion so far. Management emphasizes this promotion as a growth driver, but financial results have yet to demonstrate its effectiveness.
31%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Our newly launched all-inclusive promotion is driving strength.'”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Our newly launched all-inclusive promotion is driving strength.”
- #3
Exceed $150 million implementation
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Aim to exceed $150 million in implementation for the fiscal year.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q1. Financials do not provide specific updates on the $150 million implementation target. While management has set this as a capital allocation priority, the lack of detailed financial disclosure on progress limits assessment of delivery.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“CFO: 'We expect to exceed $150 million in implementation in the year.'”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-04-30Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q1Multiple sources
“We expect to exceed $150 million in implementation in the year.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
41 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MGM MGM Resorts | +1.9 | inexpensive | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-299d agoItem 2.02
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION This current report on Form 8-K is being furnished to disclose the press release issued by the Registrant on April 29, 2026. The purpose of the press release, furnished as Exhibit 99.1, was to announce the Registrant’s results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The information in this Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Act of 1934, nor shall it be deem…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 64 - 2026-04-071mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 3, 2026, MGM Resorts International, a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into a Voting Agreement (the “Voting Agreement”) with IAC Inc., a Delaware corporation (“IAC”) and Barry Diller. The following is a summary of the material terms of the Voting Agreement. The summary does not purport to be complete and is qualified in its entirety by reference to the Voting Agreement, a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 10.1 hereto and is…
mna activitypositivescore 32 - 2026-02-053mo agoItem 2.02
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION This current report on Form 8-K is being furnished to disclose the press release issued by the Registrant on February 5, 2026. The purpose of the press release, furnished as Exhibit 99.1, was to announce the Registrant’s results of operations for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The information in this Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Act of 1934, nor sh…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 9 - 2026-02-043mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026, MGM Resorts International (the “Company”) inadvertently posted certain preliminary financial information for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 as set forth in Exhibit 99.1 hereto. This preliminary financial information is subject to completion of the Company’s financial closing procedures. In addition, this preliminary financial information has not been audited or reviewed by the Company’s independent r…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 8 - 2026-01-163mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 15, 2026, MGM Resorts International (the “Company”) entered into an employment agreement with John McManus, Chief Legal and Administrative Officer and Secretary of the Company (the “Employment Agreement”), effective as of January 1, 2026. The Employment Agreement provides for a term until December 31, 2029 and a minimum base salary of $1…
executive changeneutralscore 4
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.