3M (MMM)
NYSEIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-07-08
$154.71-2.09%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $154.71. As of 2026-07-09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $155 MMM trades at 19× p/e, below its 31× p/e peer median, but our blended $136 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $168 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $6.87/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $23.30 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $34.11 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $235.64 | 27.4 | 8.60 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $182.11 | 16.5 | 12.08 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $89.43 | 23.1 | 3.87 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $227.97 | 27.4 | 8.32 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $82.06 | 1.7 | 46.97 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $166.69 | 20.0 | 8.32 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $36.73 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $154.71 | 18.6 | 8.32 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $242.65 | 27.4 | 8.86 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $307.25 | 27.4 | 11.21 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $45.43 | 23.1 | 1.96 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $270.48 | 27.4 | 9.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $88.69 | 1.7 | 50.76 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $197.78 | 20.0 | 9.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $183.56 | 18.6 | 9.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $366.72 | 27.4 | 13.38 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $28.92 | 23.1 | 1.25 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $284.55 | 27.4 | 10.38 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $93.30 | 1.7 | 53.40 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $208.06 | 20.0 | 10.38 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $193.11 | 18.6 | 10.38 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.