Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$392.68-8.11%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
Research Workspace
Put MPC beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Energy is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 31% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 18%.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskHealthy across the board
MPC's refining margins have to stay elevated to justify the stock. Revenue grew 53% in the second quarter of 2026. The company beat its third-quarter earnings estimate by 4.6%. It trades at 8 times earnings versus an 19 times peer median. The price reflects less growth than our forecast. Reported profits are not well backed by cash. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 15%. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades. Our read remains intact. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-11-04. MPC is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 19 analysts currently covering MPC (as of Nov 2026).
Based on 10 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MPC in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare MPC with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Compare now without an account. Saving and monitoring require an account.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-11-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put MPC next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Execute value-enhancing capital strategy and refinery investments
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-11-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $392.68
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $392.68.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Major divestiture and reinvestment aligns with capital strategy.
Advances: Execute value-enhancing capital strategy and refinery investments
Record utilization confirms successful refinery execution.
Advances: Return capital through disciplined capital allocation
Beating estimates supports disciplined capital allocation thesis.
Advances: Execute value-enhancing capital strategy and refinery investments
Major asset sale executes value-enhancing capital strategy.
Advances: Return capital to shareholders with disciplined capital allocation
A 10% dividend increase supports shareholder returns and demonstrates disciplined capital allocation.
Advances: Advance MPLX Natural Gas and NGL growth strategy with $2.9B capital in 2026
Strengthens growth strategy in natural gas and NGL markets.
Settlement removes legal uncertainty, supporting capital allocation.
Advances: Increase refining utilization and margin capture through yield-enhancing invest…
Increased refining margins due to reduced competition.
