MPC
Marathon PetroleumNYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MPC has a composite score of 12.4, indicating a "mild favorable" signal. The score is influenced by various factors, including a macro score of 4.0 and a management score of 58.5. The analysis is provisional, reflecting potential changes based on scenarios such as guidance cuts and sector trends. The top drivers include macroeconomic factors like inflation, labor, growth, and rates.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.27
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $7.34 → $10.77 (+46.6% / 30d). 10 raised, 2 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 9 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.0% above current price.
2 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
8 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2025-12-18MPC — CFO transitionimpact 0.55
- 2026-04-13MPC — credit agreementimpact 0.37
- 2026-04-13MPC — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.29
- 2025-04-30MPC — President transitionimpact 0.21
- 2026-04-13MPC — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreementimpact 0.20
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Capital spending outlook of $1.5 billion for 2026capital allocationmixed44% progressprovisional
2/3: “MPC's 2026 capital spending outlook (excluding MPLX) is $1.5 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. MPC has consistently outlined a capital spending plan of $1.5 billion for 2026, excluding MPLX. This commitment is part of their strategy to focus on value-enhancing and sustaining capital. The financials do not yet reflect the impact of this planned expenditure, as it is forward-looking.
- 2.Increase refining utilization and margin captureproductmixed65% progressprovisional
2/3: “Full-year refining utilization of 94 percent and margin capture of 105 percent, demonstrating strong operational and commercial performance.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. MPC reported a full-year refining utilization of 94% and margin capture of 105%, indicating strong operational and commercial performance. This suggests that MPC is delivering on its priority to enhance refining efficiency and profitability.
- 3.MPLX capital spending of $2.7 billion in 2026capital allocationmixed44% progressprovisional
2/3: “MPLX's 2026 capital spending outlook: $2.7 billion, focusing on growth and maintenance capital.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. MPLX has announced a capital spending plan of $2.7 billion for 2026, focusing on growth and maintenance capital. This is a strategic move to enhance its infrastructure and capacity, though financial impacts are yet to be realized.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 42%; 252d 31%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −18%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLE) — 0.09 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 48/100, drawdown 63/100, beta 9/100, earnings vol —.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -24.0% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Capital spending outlook of $1.5 billion for 2026
Capital allocationMPC plans to allocate $1.5 billion for capital spending in 2026, focusing on value-enhancing and sustaining capital.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. MPC has consistently outlined a capital spending plan of $1.5 billion for 2026, excluding MPLX. This commitment is part of their strategy to focus on value-enhancing and sustaining capital. The financials do not yet reflect the impact of this planned expenditure, as it is forward-looking.
44%CEO/CFO:“MPC's 2026 capital spending outlook (excluding MPLX) is $1.5 billion.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-03Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-03provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“MPC's 2026 standalone (excluding MPLX) capital spending outlook: $1.5 billion.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“MPC's 2026 capital spending outlook (excluding MPLX) is $1.5 billion.”
- #2
Increase refining utilization and margin capture
ProductMPC aims to maintain high refining utilization and margin capture to drive operational performance.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. MPC reported a full-year refining utilization of 94% and margin capture of 105%, indicating strong operational and commercial performance. This suggests that MPC is delivering on its priority to enhance refining efficiency and profitability.
Full-year refining utilization of 94 percentMargin capture of 105 percent65%CEO/CFO:“Full-year refining utilization of 94 percent and margin capture of 105 percent, demonstrating strong operational and commercial performance.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-03Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-03provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Full-year refining utilization of 94 percent and margin capture of 105 percent.”
- #3
MPLX capital spending of $2.7 billion in 2026
Capital allocationMPLX plans to invest $2.7 billion in 2026, focusing on growth and maintenance capital.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. MPLX has announced a capital spending plan of $2.7 billion for 2026, focusing on growth and maintenance capital. This is a strategic move to enhance its infrastructure and capacity, though financial impacts are yet to be realized.
44%CEO/CFO:“MPLX's 2026 capital spending outlook: $2.7 billion, focusing on growth and maintenance capital.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-03Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-03provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“MPLX's 2026 capital spending outlook: $2.7 billion.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
47 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MPC Marathon Petroleum | +12 | full | moderate |
XOM ExxonMobil | +5.8 | expensive | moderate |
CVX Chevron Corporation | +3.0 | expensive | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | +8.0 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | +4.1 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+5.4 pts
- If energy sector trend rises from -0.03 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)-8.0 pts
- If energy sector trend falls from -0.03 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-053d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 5, 2026, Marathon Petroleum Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. Information in this
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 67 - 2026-04-1325d agoItem 2.02
shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise incorporated by reference into any filing pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act except as otherwise expressly stated in such a filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 41 - 2026-04-1325d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. MPC Credit Agreement On April 7, 2026, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“MPC”), entered into a $5.0 billion, five-year Revolving Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, each of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Barclays Bank PLC, BofA Securities, Inc., Citibank, N.A., Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Mizuho Bank, Ltd., MUFG Bank, Ltd., RBC Capital Markets, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking…
capital allocationneutralscore 37 - 2026-04-1325d agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information in
capital allocationnegativescore 29 - 2026-04-1325d agoItem 1.02
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. The New MPC Credit Agreement replaced MPC’s previously existing $5.0 billion credit agreement, dated as of July 7, 2022 (the “2022 MPC Credit Agreement”), by and among MPC, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, and the various other commercial lending institutions that were party thereto. The 2022 MPC Credit Agreement was terminated in connection with and as a condition to the availability of the lending and credit commitments unde…
mna activitynegativescore 29
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.