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MPWR

Monolithic Power Systems

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-05-08

$1600.84+1.58%
Close 2026-05-08 · 1-day change
The bottom line

As of May 8, 2026, MPWR has a composite score of 18.7 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is driven by a high confidence level of 81.0, with notable strengths in macro factors (32.3) and quality (64.9), while the sector score is lower at 21.4. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the information may be subject to change.

Composite +19as of 2026-05-08

Price

Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.

Close 2026-05-08
Daily closes. Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event

Factor signals

Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.

L1

Thesis

is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?
F1 · Recent financial performance
strong
Top 30% of information technology cohort
Why this rank
  • Direction share
    1.00
  • Slope (norm)
    0.12
  • Bonus
    0.00
Operating income, last 4 quarters ($M)
165195200241
F2 · Value
expensive
Most expensive 20% of information technology cohort
Why this rank
Price
$1600.84
TTM EPS
$13.20
Earnings yield
0.8%
P/E (TTM)
121.3

Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1

F3 · Earnings quality
neutral
Mid-cohort cash conversion
Why this rank
TTM NI ($M)
681
TTM CFO ($M)
832
CFO/NI
1.22
L2

Watch

has something changed worth re-reading?
F4 · Management stability
neutral
Mid-cohort activity· see deep-dive ↓
capital unfriendlyBottom 10% — net capital-unfriendly direction
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
bullish strongEPS revised +13.7% / 30d, n=15for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions

EPS estimate $5.15 → $5.86 (+13.7% / 30d). 13 raised, 0 cut, 15 covering analysts.

Rating actions

0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 82% of analysts rate Buy.

Price target activity

6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.9% above current price.

Material events

1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.

Market and fundamentals agree — analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.

F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
2

Stated priorities

3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).

  1. 1.Increase revenue to $890-$910 milliongrowthmixed65% progress
    4/30: For Q2 2026, we are forecasting revenue in the range of $890 million to $910 million.
    Why this status

    Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $751.2M in 2025-Q4 to $804.2M in 2026-Q1, showing progress towards the $890-$910M target for Q2 2026. The trajectory is delivering on the stated growth priority.

  2. 2.Maintain GAAP gross margin 55.1%-55.7%costmixed65% progress
    4/30: GAAP gross margin in the range of 55.1% to 55.7%.
    Why this status

    Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. GAAP gross margin was 55.3% in 2026-Q1, within the targeted range of 55.1%-55.7% for Q2 2026. The margin is stable, aligning with management's cost control priority.

  3. 3.Control non-GAAP operating expensescostmixed65% progress
    4/30: Non-GAAP operating expenses in the range of $167.0 million to $171.0 million.
    Why this status

    Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $158.3M in 2026-Q1, below the Q2 2026 target range of $167.0M to $171.0M. Management is delivering on expense control, maintaining discipline.

3

Guidance track record

Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.

L3

Position context

how violent might the path be while I hold it?
Risk profile · realized
backward-looking
elevatedworst 12m loss −22%, typical day ±1.9%
Why this risk level

Recent vol — 30d annualized 57%; 252d 46%.

Drawdown — Max 1y −22%. Bad day move −5%.

Beta to sector ETF (XLK) 0.11 over 1y.

Liquidity — score 100/100.

Sub-scores — vol 23/100, drawdown 55/100, beta 11/100, earnings vol .

Sector regime
tailwind+15.9%sector vs S&P 500, 60d

via XLK

Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.

AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifier
HeatingManiaSquallCrisisEarnings →Mood ↑
HeatingE +0.13 · M +0.71
Single-axisCHASEz +2.97+1.285d

Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.

Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.

3

What changed

The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.

  1. No material changes since the prior snapshot.

No material changes since the prior snapshot.

as of 2026-05-08

4

Management scorecard

How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.

Composite58.5 / 100
Capital allocation49
Earnings discipline89
Margin discipline65
Balance sheet35
Guidance credibility
Post-call reaction48
as of 2026-05-08
4

What management is focused on

Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.

  • #1

    Increase revenue to $890-$910 million

    GrowthNew since 2026-05-04

    Target revenue growth to reach $890-$910 million in Q2 2026.

    BehindMixed

    Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $751.2M in 2025-Q4 to $804.2M in 2026-Q1, showing progress towards the $890-$910M target for Q2 2026. The trajectory is delivering on the stated growth priority.

    Revenue grew from $751.2M in 2025-Q4 to $804.2M in 2026-Q1
    65%
    CEO/CFO:For Q2 2026, we are forecasting revenue in the range of $890 million to $910 million.
    Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04
    Show history (2)
    • 2026-Q1Multiple sources

      For Q2 2026, we are forecasting revenue in the range of $890 million to $910 million.

    • 2025-Q4Multiple sources

      Revenue in the range of $770.0 million to $790.0 million.

  • #2

    Maintain GAAP gross margin 55.1%-55.7%

    CostNew since 2026-05-04

    Aim to sustain GAAP gross margin between 55.1% and 55.7% in Q2 2026.

    BehindMixed

    Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. GAAP gross margin was 55.3% in 2026-Q1, within the targeted range of 55.1%-55.7% for Q2 2026. The margin is stable, aligning with management's cost control priority.

    65%
    CEO/CFO:GAAP gross margin in the range of 55.1% to 55.7%.
    Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04
    Show history (2)
    • 2026-Q1Multiple sources

      GAAP gross margin in the range of 55.1% to 55.7%.

    • 2025-Q4Multiple sources

      GAAP gross margin between 54.9% and 55.5%.

  • #3

    Control non-GAAP operating expenses

    CostNew since 2026-05-04

    Manage non-GAAP operating expenses within $167.0 million to $171.0 million for Q2 2026.

    BehindMixed

    Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $158.3M in 2026-Q1, below the Q2 2026 target range of $167.0M to $171.0M. Management is delivering on expense control, maintaining discipline.

    Non-GAAP operating expenses were $158.3M in 2026-Q1
    65%
    CEO/CFO:Non-GAAP operating expenses in the range of $167.0 million to $171.0 million.
    Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04
    Show history (2)
    • 2026-Q1Multiple sources

      Non-GAAP operating expenses in the range of $167.0 million to $171.0 million.

    • 2025-Q4Multiple sources

      Non-GAAP operating expenses between $156.0 million and $160.0 million.

as of 2026-05-08
5

How this stock is priced

Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.

Compared to peers
13higher = cheaper

Looks more expensive than peers.

Compared to its own history
55higher = cheaper

Around its own typical valuation.

P/E
83.7x
EV/EBITDA
93.0x
FCF yield
0.8%

P/E over the last 5 years

71 monthly points
expensiveas of 2026-05-08
7

How this compares

A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.

StockCompositeValuationRisk
MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems
+19expensiveelevated
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
+20fullmoderate
AAPL
Apple Inc
+19fullmoderate
MSFT
Microsoft
+27fairelevated
AVGO
Broadcom
+11expensiveelevated
8

Risk — how this stock moves

What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.

A typical day
How much price usually moves either way.
1.9%
A bad day (95th %ile)
A rough but not unusual down day.
-4.6%
Worst 12-month loss
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
-22.4%
Earnings-day move
How much price usually moves on earnings day.
elevatedas of 2026-05-08
9

What could change this view

Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.

Upside triggers
  • If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
  • If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
Downside triggers
  • If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
  • If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
  • If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
10

Material updates

Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.

  1. 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02

    of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “1934 Act”), nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the 1934 Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.

    earnings preannouncementpositivescore 60
  2. 2026-02-272mo agoItem 4.02

    Non-Reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements or a Related Audit Report or Completed Interim Review On February 26, 2026, the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors of Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (the “Company”), after discussion with senior management, determined that the Company’s previously issued audited consolidated financial statements included in its annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, filed on March 3, 2025, and each of the Company’s…

    legal regulatorynegativescore 17
  3. 2026-02-053mo agoItem 5.02

    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) Departure of Chief Financial Officer On February 3, 2026, Bernie Blegen informed the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) of his intention to retire from his position as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Blegen will continue in his role until the issuance of the Company’s 2025 annual report on Form 10-K (the “Effec…

    executive changeneutralscore 10
  4. 2026-02-053mo agoItem 2.02

    Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) regarding its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated by reference herein is financial information and commentary regarding results of the quarter and year ended Dece…

    earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8
  5. 2026-02-053mo agoItem 8.01

    Other Events. Increase in Quarterly Dividend In the Press Release, the Company announced that its Board approved an increase in its quarterly cash dividend from $1.56 per share to $2.00 per share. The first quarter dividend of $2.00 per share will be paid on April 15, 2026 to all stockholders of record as of the close of business on March 31, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.

    capital allocationneutralscore 6
11

Score history

The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.

60 snapshots
Data freshness · As of 2026-05-08 · Macro 2026-05-08 · Sector 2026-05-07 · Fundamentals 2026-05-04 · Price 2026-05-07 · Generated 2026-05-08 · Spec 2.3

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.