MPWR
Monolithic Power SystemsNASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MPWR has a composite score of 18.7 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is driven by a high confidence level of 81.0, with notable strengths in macro factors (32.3) and quality (64.9), while the sector score is lower at 21.4. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the information may be subject to change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.12
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $5.15 → $5.86 (+13.7% / 30d). 13 raised, 0 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.9% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree — analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase revenue to $890-$910 milliongrowthmixed65% progress
4/30: “For Q2 2026, we are forecasting revenue in the range of $890 million to $910 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $751.2M in 2025-Q4 to $804.2M in 2026-Q1, showing progress towards the $890-$910M target for Q2 2026. The trajectory is delivering on the stated growth priority.
- 2.Maintain GAAP gross margin 55.1%-55.7%costmixed65% progress
4/30: “GAAP gross margin in the range of 55.1% to 55.7%.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. GAAP gross margin was 55.3% in 2026-Q1, within the targeted range of 55.1%-55.7% for Q2 2026. The margin is stable, aligning with management's cost control priority.
- 3.Control non-GAAP operating expensescostmixed65% progress
4/30: “Non-GAAP operating expenses in the range of $167.0 million to $171.0 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $158.3M in 2026-Q1, below the Q2 2026 target range of $167.0M to $171.0M. Management is delivering on expense control, maintaining discipline.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 57%; 252d 46%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −22%. Bad day move −5%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.11 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 23/100, drawdown 55/100, beta 11/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase revenue to $890-$910 million
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Target revenue growth to reach $890-$910 million in Q2 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $751.2M in 2025-Q4 to $804.2M in 2026-Q1, showing progress towards the $890-$910M target for Q2 2026. The trajectory is delivering on the stated growth priority.
Revenue grew from $751.2M in 2025-Q4 to $804.2M in 2026-Q165%CEO/CFO:“For Q2 2026, we are forecasting revenue in the range of $890 million to $910 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For Q2 2026, we are forecasting revenue in the range of $890 million to $910 million.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Revenue in the range of $770.0 million to $790.0 million.”
- #2
Maintain GAAP gross margin 55.1%-55.7%
CostNew since 2026-05-04Aim to sustain GAAP gross margin between 55.1% and 55.7% in Q2 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. GAAP gross margin was 55.3% in 2026-Q1, within the targeted range of 55.1%-55.7% for Q2 2026. The margin is stable, aligning with management's cost control priority.
65%CEO/CFO:“GAAP gross margin in the range of 55.1% to 55.7%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“GAAP gross margin in the range of 55.1% to 55.7%.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“GAAP gross margin between 54.9% and 55.5%.”
- #3
Control non-GAAP operating expenses
CostNew since 2026-05-04Manage non-GAAP operating expenses within $167.0 million to $171.0 million for Q2 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $158.3M in 2026-Q1, below the Q2 2026 target range of $167.0M to $171.0M. Management is delivering on expense control, maintaining discipline.
Non-GAAP operating expenses were $158.3M in 2026-Q165%CEO/CFO:“Non-GAAP operating expenses in the range of $167.0 million to $171.0 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Non-GAAP operating expenses in the range of $167.0 million to $171.0 million.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Non-GAAP operating expenses between $156.0 million and $160.0 million.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MPWR Monolithic Power Systems | +19 | expensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “1934 Act”), nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the 1934 Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 60 - 2026-02-272mo agoItem 4.02
Non-Reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements or a Related Audit Report or Completed Interim Review On February 26, 2026, the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors of Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (the “Company”), after discussion with senior management, determined that the Company’s previously issued audited consolidated financial statements included in its annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, filed on March 3, 2025, and each of the Company’s…
legal regulatorynegativescore 17 - 2026-02-053mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) Departure of Chief Financial Officer On February 3, 2026, Bernie Blegen informed the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) of his intention to retire from his position as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Blegen will continue in his role until the issuance of the Company’s 2025 annual report on Form 10-K (the “Effec…
executive changeneutralscore 10 - 2026-02-053mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) regarding its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated by reference herein is financial information and commentary regarding results of the quarter and year ended Dece…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8 - 2026-02-053mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Increase in Quarterly Dividend In the Press Release, the Company announced that its Board approved an increase in its quarterly cash dividend from $1.56 per share to $2.00 per share. The first quarter dividend of $2.00 per share will be paid on April 15, 2026 to all stockholders of record as of the close of business on March 31, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
capital allocationneutralscore 6
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.