Moderna (MRNA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-07-07
$79.77-2.48%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
Reading MRNA? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track MRNA free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-07-07
Reading MRNA? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track MRNA free→Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Biotechnology is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 30% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 37% growth a year, above the roughly 9% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 36% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskModerna's growth potential relies on its expanding mRNA platform and product launches. Revenue increased by 269% year over year, but the latest earnings report missed expectations by 61%. It trades at 15× price-to-sales, which is 1.5 times the peer median of 10×. The market expects more growth than what is likely, making the valuation look expensive. If Moderna cuts guidance on the next call, it could face significant pressure. Peer multiples imply a price about 37% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-07. MRNA is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 24 analysts currently covering MRNA (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MRNA in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $79.77. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Biotechnology — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
FDA vote suggests uncertainty in future revenue growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-07. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $79.77
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $79.77.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Pipeline update indicates potential for new revenue streams.
expanding mRNA platform indicates growth potential.
outperformance against competitors raises concerns.
flu vaccine progress supports revenue growth.
Rating downgrade may affect investor sentiment and future growth.
FDA approval could significantly boost revenue growth.
FDA advisory panel review supports product pipeline.