MRNA
ModernaNASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MRNA has a composite score of -6.2 and a signal label of "mixed." The risk label has changed from "high" to "elevated," indicating a shift in perceived risk. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as labor, rates, growth, and inflation, which contribute to the overall assessment. The confidence level is medium at 72.4.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share-1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.01
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $-2.10 → $-2.09 (+0.4% / 30d). 4 raised, 5 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -10.4% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Target up to 10% revenue growth in 2026growthmixed55% progress
5/1: “The Company is targeting up to 10% growth from 2025 revenue.”
Why this status
Stated in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue for 2025 was $1.91 billion. The company has consistently reiterated its target of up to 10% revenue growth for 2026. However, with revenue declining from $1.86 billion in 2024-Q3 to $1.91 billion in 2025-Q4, the trajectory shows limited progress towards the 2026 growth target.
- 2.Maintain strong cash positioncapital allocationmixed37% progress
5/1: “Year-end cash and investments for 2026 are now projected to be $4.5 to $5.0 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Year-end cash and investments for 2026 are now projected to be $4.5 to $5.0 billion, down from previous projections of $5.5 to $6.0 billion. The trajectory shows a declining cash position, indicating challenges in maintaining the strong cash position as previously targeted.
- 3.Manage operating expensescostbehind7% progressprovisional
1/12: “The Company expects GAAP operating expenses of approximately $4.9 billion in 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company expects GAAP operating expenses of approximately $4.9 billion in 2026, down from the 2025 range of $5.0 – $5.2 billion. Despite the reduction, operating income remains negative, indicating limited progress in managing expenses effectively.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 56%; 252d 64%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −36%. Bad day move −6%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLV) — 1.89 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 0/100, drawdown 29/100, beta 11/100, earnings vol —.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- risk change · risk_labelseverity 20
risk label changed from 'high' to 'elevated'.
As of May 8, 2026, the risk label for MRNA changed from 'high' to 'elevated'. The composite score is -6.2, with a confidence level of 72.4, categorized as medium. The signal is currently labeled as mixed. The inputs indicate that the situation is provisional.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Target up to 10% revenue growth in 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Moderna aims to achieve up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 compared to 2025.
On track →MixedStated in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue for 2025 was $1.91 billion. The company has consistently reiterated its target of up to 10% revenue growth for 2026. However, with revenue declining from $1.86 billion in 2024-Q3 to $1.91 billion in 2025-Q4, the trajectory shows limited progress towards the 2026 growth target.
55%CEO/CFO:“The Company is targeting up to 10% growth from 2025 revenue.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-01Stated 5 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (5)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Moderna reiterates its target of up to 10% revenue growth in 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“we expect to grow sales and deliver up to 10 percent revenue growth in 2026”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“the Company expects growth from the annualized impact of long-term partnerships... up to 10% revenue growth in 2026”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Moderna reiterates its target of up to 10% revenue growth in 2026.”
- 2025-Q1Multiple sources
“we expect to grow sales and deliver up to 10 percent revenue growth in 2026”
- #2
Maintain strong cash position
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Moderna aims to maintain a strong cash position with projected year-end cash and investments.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Year-end cash and investments for 2026 are now projected to be $4.5 to $5.0 billion, down from previous projections of $5.5 to $6.0 billion. The trajectory shows a declining cash position, indicating challenges in maintaining the strong cash position as previously targeted.
37%CEO/CFO:“Year-end cash and investments for 2026 are now projected to be $4.5 to $5.0 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-01Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Year-end cash and investments for 2026 are now projected to be $4.5 to $5.0 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Year-end cash and investments for 2026 are projected to be $5.5 to $6.0 billion.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Increases 2025 expected year-end cash balance by $0.5 billion - $1 billion to a range of $6.5 - $7.0 billion.”
- #3
Manage operating expenses
CostNew since 2026-05-04Moderna is focused on managing operating expenses to improve financial performance.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company expects GAAP operating expenses of approximately $4.9 billion in 2026, down from the 2025 range of $5.0 – $5.2 billion. Despite the reduction, operating income remains negative, indicating limited progress in managing expenses effectively.
7%CEO/CFO:“The Company expects GAAP operating expenses of approximately $4.9 billion in 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-12Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company expects GAAP operating expenses of approximately $4.9 billion in 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The Company is also improving 2025 expected GAAP operating expenses by $200 million to a range of $5.0 – $5.2 billion.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Improves 2025 expected GAAP operating expenses by $0.7 billion to a range of $5.2 - $5.4 billion.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
15 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MRNA Moderna | -6.2 | full | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | +21 | full | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | +18 | full | low |
ABBV AbbVie | +12 | fair | low |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | +24 | fair | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If health_care sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-01)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-01)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.8 pts
- If health_care sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-017d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 1, 2026, Moderna, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 67 - 2026-03-052mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 3, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), Moderna, Inc. (the “Company”) and ModernaTX, Inc. (together with the Company, “Moderna”) and Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (“Arbutus”), Genevant Sciences GmbH (“Genevant” and, together with Arbutus, “Arbutus/Genevant”), and, solely for certain purposes, Genevant Sciences Ltd., entered into a settlement agreement (the “Settlement Agreement”) to resolve all patent infringement litigation between Moderna and Arb…
capital allocationneutralscore 17 - 2026-02-132mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 13, 2026, Moderna, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 10
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.