MSCI
MSCI Inc.NYSEFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MSCI has a composite score of 14.7 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 78.0 and strengths in quality (82.1) and management (76.0). However, macro factors are currently unfavorable, with a macro score of -7.7. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.01
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $4.82 → $4.85 (+0.5% / 30d). 6 raised, 7 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 23.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase Free Cash Flowcapital allocationmixed65% progressprovisional
1/28: “MSCI's guidance for Free Cash Flow is $1,470 to $1,530 million for 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free Cash Flow guidance for 2026 is $1,470 to $1,530 million, up from $1,400 to $1,460 million in 2025. The trajectory indicates progress towards enhancing free cash flow, aligning with management's stated priority.
- 2.Manage Capital Expenditurescapital allocationmixed65% progress
4/21: “Capital Expenditures guidance is $160 to $170 million for 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital Expenditures guidance remains consistent at $160 to $170 million for 2026, indicating a stable approach to managing capex within the set range, aligning with management's priority.
- 3.Maintain Effective Tax Rateregulatorywatchprovisional
4/21: “Effective Tax Rate guidance is 18.0% to 20.0% for 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Effective Tax Rate guidance is stable at 18.0% to 20.0% for 2026, reflecting management's focus on maintaining fiscal discipline and regulatory compliance.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 25%; 252d 28%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −18%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 0.77 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 53/100, drawdown 64/100, beta 77/100, earnings vol —.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase Free Cash Flow
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Focus on enhancing free cash flow through operational efficiencies and strategic initiatives.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free Cash Flow guidance for 2026 is $1,470 to $1,530 million, up from $1,400 to $1,460 million in 2025. The trajectory indicates progress towards enhancing free cash flow, aligning with management's stated priority.
Free Cash Flow guidance is $1,470 to $1,530 million for 202665%CEO/CFO:“MSCI's guidance for Free Cash Flow is $1,470 to $1,530 million for 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-28Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Free Cash Flow $1,470 to $1,530 million”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Free Cash Flow $1,400 to $1,460 million”
- #2
Manage Capital Expenditures
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Maintain disciplined capital expenditure management within the set guidance range.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital Expenditures guidance remains consistent at $160 to $170 million for 2026, indicating a stable approach to managing capex within the set range, aligning with management's priority.
Capital Expenditures guidance is $160 to $170 million for 202665%CEO/CFO:“Capital Expenditures guidance is $160 to $170 million for 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Capital Expenditures $160 to $170 million”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Capital Expenditures $160 to $170 million”
- #3
Maintain Effective Tax Rate
RegulatoryNew since 2026-05-04Ensure the effective tax rate remains within the guided range for fiscal stability.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Effective Tax Rate guidance is stable at 18.0% to 20.0% for 2026, reflecting management's focus on maintaining fiscal discipline and regulatory compliance.
Effective Tax Rate guidance is 18.0% to 20.0% for 2026No scoreCEO/CFO:“Effective Tax Rate guidance is 18.0% to 20.0% for 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Effective Tax Rate 18.0% to 20.0%”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Effective Tax Rate 18.0% to 20.0%”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MSCI MSCI Inc. | +15 | full | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2118d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026 , MSCI Inc. (the “Registrant”) released financial information with respect to its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release containing this information is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (the “Report”). The Registrant’s press release contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. Definitions of each non-GAAP financial measure, additional information about why management believes…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 44
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.