NEM
NewmontNYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, NEM has a composite score of 16.9 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 76.1 and elevated risk, with sector performance at 8.8 and valuation at 70.0, labeled as inexpensive. The analysis is provisional and reflects recent macroeconomic conditions, including factors related to growth, inflation, and labor.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.61
- Slope (norm)-0.34
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.26 → $2.17 (-4.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 77% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 25.9% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
3 material events in the last 24 months — top 3 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Enhanced Capital Allocation Frameworkcapital allocationmixed44% progress
2/19: “Newmont announced an enhanced capital allocation framework to maximize total return of capital to shareholders.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Newmont ended 2026-Q1 with a net cash position of $3.2 billion, supporting its enhanced capital allocation framework. The trajectory shows consistent focus on maximizing shareholder returns through disciplined capital management.
- 2.Sustaining Capital Investmentcapital allocationmixed44% progress
2/19: “Newmont expects to spend $1.95 billion in sustaining capital in 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Newmont spent $381 million in sustaining capital in 2026-Q1, with plans to increase spending to meet the $1.95 billion target for the year. The trajectory indicates ongoing commitment to enhancing asset longevity.
- 3.Development Capital Reinvestmentcapital allocationmixed44% progress
2/19: “Newmont expects to spend $1.4 billion in development capital in 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Newmont invested $239 million in development projects in 2026-Q1, with a full-year target of $1.4 billion. The trajectory shows a disciplined approach to advancing high-return projects.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 54%; 252d 46%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −27%. Bad day move −5%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLB) — 0.09 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 23/100, drawdown 46/100, beta 9/100, earnings vol —.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Enhanced Capital Allocation Framework
Capital allocationNewmont aims to maximize shareholder returns through a sustainable capital allocation framework.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Newmont ended 2026-Q1 with a net cash position of $3.2 billion, supporting its enhanced capital allocation framework. The trajectory shows consistent focus on maximizing shareholder returns through disciplined capital management.
44%CEO/CFO:“Newmont announced an enhanced capital allocation framework to maximize total return of capital to shareholders.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-19Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-19Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Newmont's Board authorized an additional $6.0 billion share repurchase program.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Announced an enhanced capital allocation framework creating a predictable pathway to per share dividend growth.”
- #2
Sustaining Capital Investment
Capital allocationNewmont plans to invest $1.95 billion in sustaining capital in 2026 to enhance portfolio longevity.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Newmont spent $381 million in sustaining capital in 2026-Q1, with plans to increase spending to meet the $1.95 billion target for the year. The trajectory indicates ongoing commitment to enhancing asset longevity.
44%CEO/CFO:“Newmont expects to spend $1.95 billion in sustaining capital in 2026.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-19Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-19Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Newmont spent $381 million in sustaining capital, with spend expected to increase.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Sustaining capital spend of approximately $1.95 billion to advance critical tailings facility work.”
- #3
Development Capital Reinvestment
Capital allocationNewmont plans to invest $1.4 billion in development capital in 2026 for high-return projects.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Newmont invested $239 million in development projects in 2026-Q1, with a full-year target of $1.4 billion. The trajectory shows a disciplined approach to advancing high-return projects.
44%CEO/CFO:“Newmont expects to spend $1.4 billion in development capital in 2026.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-19Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-19Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Newmont invested $239 million in its current development projects.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Development capital spend of approximately $1.4 billion to progress key near-term projects.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
59 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NEM Newmont | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
LIN Linde plc | +24 | inexpensive | moderate |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +6.4 | — | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
CRH CRH plc | +9.4 | inexpensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If materials sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+3.4 pts
- If materials sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.5 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.1 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2315d agoItem 2.02
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 51 - 2026-04-2810d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 24, 2026, Mr. Francois Hardy, Executive Vice President and Chief Technical Officer, notified Newmont Corporation (the “Company”) of his decision to retire, effective June 30, 2026, after approximately 24 years of dedicated service to the Company. Mr. Hardy’s upcoming retirement is not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the…
executive changeneutralscore 45 - 2026-02-192mo agoItem 2.02
and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 12
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.