NFLX
NetflixNASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, NFLX has a composite score of 22.7 and is labeled as "mild favorable." The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 79.7, with strengths in management (63.2) and quality (72.7), but weaknesses in momentum (-5.1) and sector performance (17.0). The analysis is provisional, reflecting potential changes based on various scenarios, including guidance cuts and sector trends.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.07
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.82 → $0.79 (-4.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 23 cut, 35 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 12 maintained. 74% of analysts rate Buy.
9 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.5% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
8 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-04-16NFLX — director transitionimpact 0.54
- 2026-04-22NFLX — share buyback announcedimpact 0.30
- 2025-12-22NFLX — credit agreementimpact 0.27
- 2025-12-22NFLX — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.22
- 2026-01-20NFLX — M&A activity — Entry into a Material Definitive Agreementimpact 0.20
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase free cash flow to $12.5B in 2026capital allocationmixed44% progress
4/16: “We now expect 2026 FCF of approximately $12.5B, an increase from our previous projection of $11B.”
- 2.Maintain 2026 operating margin at 31.5%costmixed65% progress
4/16: “Similarly, we’re still targeting an operating margin of 31.5% for 2026.”
- 3.Authorize $25 billion share buybackcapital allocationmixed44% progress
4/23: “The Board authorized the repurchase of an additional $25 billion of the Company’s common stock.”
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 40%; 252d 33%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −43%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLC) — 0.76 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 45/100, drawdown 13/100, beta 76/100, earnings vol —.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase free cash flow to $12.5B in 2026
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Netflix aims to increase its free cash flow to $12.5 billion by the end of 2026.
Mixed44%CEO/CFO:“We now expect 2026 FCF of approximately $12.5B, an increase from our previous projection of $11B.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-16First seen 2026-05-04 - #2
Maintain 2026 operating margin at 31.5%
CostNew since 2026-05-04Netflix is targeting an operating margin of 31.5% for the fiscal year 2026.
Mixed65%CEO/CFO:“Similarly, we’re still targeting an operating margin of 31.5% for 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-16First seen 2026-05-04 - #3
Authorize $25 billion share buyback
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Netflix's Board authorized an additional $25 billion share repurchase program.
Mixed44%CEO/CFO:“The Board authorized the repurchase of an additional $25 billion of the Company’s common stock.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-23First seen 2026-05-04
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NFLX Netflix | +23 | inexpensive | moderate |
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. (Class A) | +31 | fair | moderate |
GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class C) | +32 | fair | moderate |
META Meta Platforms | +30 | inexpensive | elevated |
TMUS T-Mobile US | +33 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If communication_services sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-16)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-16)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-5.8 pts
- If communication_services sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-1622d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 16, 2026, Netflix, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Letter to Shareholders, which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference, includes reference to the non-GAAP financial information. A reconciliation to the GAAP equivalent of non-GAAP measures is contained in tabular form in Exhibit 99.1. We are not able to reconcile forward-looking non-GAAP fi…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 40 - 2026-04-2216d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On April 22, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Netflix, Inc. (the “Company”) authorized the repurchase of an additional $25 billion of the Company’s common stock, in addition to the repurchase program authorized in December 2024, each without an expiration date. The Company had approximately $6.8 billion available for repurchase as of March 31, 2026 under the Company’s December 2024 share repurchase authorization. Stock repurchases may be effected through open market…
capital allocationpositivescore 36 - 2026-04-1622d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 10, 2026, Reed Hastings informed the Company of his decision to not stand for re-election as a director at the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”). Mr. Hastings’ current term will expire at the Annual Meeting. He will continue to serve as a director and Chairman of the Board until the Annual Meeting. Mr. Ha…
executive changeneutralscore 34 - 2026-02-272mo agoItem 1.02
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously disclosed, on January 19, 2026, Netflix, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Netflix”), Nightingale Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Netflix (“Merger Sub”), Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“WBD”), and New Topco 25, Inc., a newly formed Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of WBD (“Newco”), entered into an Amended and Restated Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agre…
mna activitynegativescore 10 - 2026-01-203mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 20, 2026, Netflix, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The Letter to Shareholders, which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference, includes reference to the non-GAAP financial information. A reconciliation to the GAAP equivalent of non-GAAP measures is contained in tabular form in Exhibit 99.1. We are not able to reconcile forward-looking non-GA…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 5
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.