Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NRX PHARMACEUTICALS INC (NRXP)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.27-8.84%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NRXP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Return to positive earnings by FY27 | A primary condition in NRX PHARMACEUTICALS INC's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.50 by FY27. | Intact | EPS remains negative through FY27 | Diluted EPS: $-0.44 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.50 by FY27. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 14, 2026-0.44 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 13, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, early-stage healthcare development and commercialization story, not an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is still developing: ketamine commercialization has shown early progress, while clinical programs remain in development and losses are growing.
NRXP is valued at a premium to peers, though confidence in that comparison is low. The evidence points to a durable premium, but does not show that the market has priced in the full combination of weak performance and management volatility.
Near term, results may remain uneven: the company recently missed earnings, operating losses widened, and the next-quarter miss risk is elevated. Over the multi-year view, early revenue growth and launch preparations support progress, but clinical development and commercialization still require execution and funding.
The thesis depends on whether NRXP can secure approval and build sales for preservative-free ketamine, while advancing NRX-100 and NRX-101. A guidance cut would add pressure, while continued strength among healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; the recent litigation filing is also a risk to monitor.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NRXP remains a speculative, loss-making story with some commercialization progress but substantial clinical, financial, and execution risks. The long-term thesis depends on turning early activity into sustained revenue and regulatory progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
KETAFREE drug approval by summer 2026 |
| It plans to approve KETAFREE in summer 2026. |
| Improving |
| approval delayed beyond summer 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth supported by $20M stock offering | The company raised $20 million in a recent stock offering. | Intact | revenue growth falls below $100M by FY27 | Revenue: $1.101M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue grows toward $165.6M by FY27. Target period ends 2027-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 14, 20261,101,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.35 → $-0.41 · observed estimates
$0.17B → $0.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.35 | $165,604,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.35 | $165,604,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.35 | $165,604,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.35 | $165,604,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.35 | $165,604,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.35 | $165,604,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.35 | $165,604,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.35 | $165,604,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.35 | $165,604,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.35 | $165,604,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.35 | $165,604,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.30 | $179,139,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.30 | $179,139,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.50 | $165,604,500 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.30 | $179,139,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.50 | $165,604,500 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.50 | $204,066,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.30 | $179,139,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.30 | $179,139,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.50 | $204,066,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.30 | $179,139,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.30 | $179,139,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.30 | $179,139,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.30 | $179,139,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.30 | $179,139,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.30 | $179,139,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.04 | $167,554,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.04 | $167,554,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.04 | $167,554,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.04 | $167,554,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.04 | $167,554,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.04 | $167,554,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.43 | $100,221,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.41 | $90,165,750 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.