NSC
Norfolk SouthernNYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, NSC has a composite score of 18.6 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 73.2 and is driven by macro factors such as growth and labor conditions. The overall risk is categorized as low, with a sector score of 16.7 and a valuation score of 52.4, indicating fair valuation. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.40
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.18 → $3.14 (-1.3% / 30d). 4 raised, 11 cut, 19 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 24% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase productivity savingscostwatchprovisional
10/23: “Raising 2025 productivity target to ~$200 million from ~$175 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management increased the 2025 productivity savings target from $175 million to $200 million. Despite the raised target, the financials show a decline in operating income from $1,175 million in 2025-Q2 to $1,098 million in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress towards achieving the savings goal.
- 2.Achieve revenue growthgrowthwatchprovisional
7/29: “Updating full year revenue growth expectation to 2-3% vs. 2024.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q2. Revenue grew from $3,004 million in 2024-Q1 to $3,103 million in 2025-Q3, reflecting a 3.3% increase. This aligns with the updated guidance of 2-3% growth, indicating that the company is delivering on its revenue growth target.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 26%; 252d 20%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −12%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 0.70 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 67/100, drawdown 75/100, beta 70/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase productivity savings
CostNew since 2026-05-04Focus on achieving productivity savings of approximately $200 million for 2025.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management increased the 2025 productivity savings target from $175 million to $200 million. Despite the raised target, the financials show a decline in operating income from $1,175 million in 2025-Q2 to $1,098 million in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress towards achieving the savings goal.
Raising 2025 productivity target to ~$200 million from ~$175 millionNo scoreCEO/CFO:“Raising 2025 productivity target to ~$200 million from ~$175 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-10-23Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Raising 2025 productivity target to ~$200 million from ~$175 million.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Raising expected productivity savings in 2025 to $175+ million.”
- #2
Achieve revenue growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Aim for revenue growth of 2-3% in 2025 compared to 2024.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q2. Revenue grew from $3,004 million in 2024-Q1 to $3,103 million in 2025-Q3, reflecting a 3.3% increase. This aligns with the updated guidance of 2-3% growth, indicating that the company is delivering on its revenue growth target.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Updating full year revenue growth expectation to 2-3% vs. 2024.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-07-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Updating full year revenue growth expectation to 2-3% vs. 2024.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NSC Norfolk Southern | +19 | fair | low |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2025-10-23)-16 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2414d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 47 - 2026-04-021mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 1, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Norfolk Southern Corporation (the “Company”), through its wholly-owned freight railroad subsidiary Norfolk Southern Railway Company (“NSRC”), entered into certain amended and restated agreements to renew the lease of its corporate headquarters building located at 650 West Peachtree Street NW, Atlanta, Georgia (the “Building”) for an additional five-year term. Those agreements included (collectively, the “Transa…
mna activitypositivescore 29 - 2026-01-293mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 7 - 2025-12-194mo agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. On December 19, 2025 Union Pacific Corporation (“Union Pacific”) and Norfolk Southern Corporation (“Norfolk Southern ”) issued a joint press release announcing that they have filed an application with the Surface Transportation Board requesting approval of the proposed combination of the two companies and held a conference call to discuss key points of such application. A copy of the press release and transcript of the call are being furnished as Exhibits 99.1 and 99…
mna activitypositivescore 2
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.