NTRS
Northern TrustNASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, NTRS has a composite score of 7.6, indicating a mixed signal with medium confidence at 75.9. The score is influenced by a macro score of -7.7 and a sector score of 14.6, reflecting concerns about macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, labor, and inflation. The overall risk is labeled as moderate, with a valuation score of 36.5 categorized as full. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.41
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.52 → $2.95 (+16.8% / 30d). 11 raised, 0 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree — analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Focus on One Northern Trust strategic prioritiesgrowthon track100% progressprovisional
1/22: “Northern Trust delivered strong results, marking another year of successful execution of our One Northern Trust strategic priorities.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income increased from $392.0M in 2025-Q1 to $525.5M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in executing the One Northern Trust strategic priorities. The trajectory shows delivering results.
- 2.Maintain strong EPS growthgrowthmixed65% progress
4/21: “Northern Trust reported first quarter net income per diluted common share of $2.71.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS increased from $1.90 in 2025-Q1 to $2.71 in 2026-Q1, reflecting strong growth. The trajectory aligns with management's focus on maintaining EPS growth.
- 3.Enhance noninterest incomegrowthon track100% progress
4/21: “Total noninterest income increased by 13% to $1,551.6 million.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Noninterest income increased by 13% to $1,551.6M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in enhancing revenue streams. The trajectory shows initial delivery on this priority.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 31%; 252d 27%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −12%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 1.17 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 56/100, drawdown 75/100, beta 84/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 12.1% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Focus on One Northern Trust strategic priorities
GrowthContinue executing the One Northern Trust strategic priorities to enhance performance.
On trackStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income increased from $392.0M in 2025-Q1 to $525.5M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in executing the One Northern Trust strategic priorities. The trajectory shows delivering results.
100%CEO/CFO:“Northern Trust delivered strong results, marking another year of successful execution of our One Northern Trust strategic priorities.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-01-22Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-01-22provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Northern Trust delivered strong results, marking another year of successful execution of our One Northern Trust strategic priorities.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“We remain well-positioned to navigate a wide range of evolving macroeconomic and market scenarios.”
- #2
Maintain strong EPS growth
GrowthFocus on maintaining strong EPS growth through strategic initiatives.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS increased from $1.90 in 2025-Q1 to $2.71 in 2026-Q1, reflecting strong growth. The trajectory aligns with management's focus on maintaining EPS growth.
65%CEO/CFO:“Northern Trust reported first quarter net income per diluted common share of $2.71.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-21Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Northern Trust reported first quarter net income per diluted common share of $2.71.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“EPS guidance for 2026 is set at $2.42.”
- #3
Enhance noninterest income
GrowthIncrease noninterest income through diversified revenue streams.
On trackNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Noninterest income increased by 13% to $1,551.6M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in enhancing revenue streams. The trajectory shows initial delivery on this priority.
100%CEO/CFO:“Total noninterest income increased by 13% to $1,551.6 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-21Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Total noninterest income increased by 13% to $1,551.6 million.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NTRS Northern Trust | +7.6 | full | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2118d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition The information contained in the registrant’s April 21, 2026 press release, reporting on the registrant’s earnings for the three months ended March 31, 2026, a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 48
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.