NUE
NucorNYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, NUE has a composite score of 13.4 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The score is driven by a high confidence level of 84.8 and a moderate risk label of 47.8. Key factors influencing the score include macroeconomic conditions such as growth, inflation, labor, and rates.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.93
- Slope (norm)-0.51
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Buyback / dividend activity on weakening fundamentals — historically a value-trap pattern (48% T+1y positive return vs 69% baseline in IT 2024-26).
Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.60 → $4.20 (+16.6% / 30d). 7 raised, 0 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 6 maintained. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.0% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
3 material events in the last 24 months — top 3 listed below.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase earnings across all segmentsgrowthbehind14% progress
4/27: “We expect higher consolidated earnings in the second quarter of 2026, with improved earnings across all three operating segments.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Management expects higher consolidated earnings in the second quarter of 2026, with improvements across all segments. However, the financials for 2025-Q4 showed a net income of -$28 million, indicating a need for significant improvement to meet this goal. The trajectory remains to be seen as the quarter progresses.
- 2.Increase EPS in 2026-Q1growthbehind14% progressprovisional
1/26: “We expect earnings to increase in the first quarter of 2026.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management anticipated an increase in earnings for the first quarter of 2026. However, the financials for 2025-Q4 showed a net income of -$28 million, suggesting challenges in achieving this target. The actual results for 2026-Q1 will determine if this priority is being met.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-30 | — | $2.68 | unclassifiable |
| 2024-09-30 | — | $1.05 | unclassifiable |
| 2024-12-31 | $1.05 | $1.22 | beat |
| 2025-03-31 | — | $0.67 | unclassifiable |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.77 | $2.60 | beat |
| 2025-09-30 | $2.60 | $2.63 | inside |
| 2025-12-31 | $2.63 | $1.64 | miss |
| 2026-03-31 | $1.64 | $3.23 | unclassifiable |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 29%; 252d 31%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −18%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLB) — 0.08 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 49/100, drawdown 63/100, beta 8/100, earnings vol —.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 75% of the last 4 guided quarters · 54.3% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase earnings across all segments
GrowthFocus on improving earnings in all three operating segments in the second quarter of 2026.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q2. Management expects higher consolidated earnings in the second quarter of 2026, with improvements across all segments. However, the financials for 2025-Q4 showed a net income of -$28 million, indicating a need for significant improvement to meet this goal. The trajectory remains to be seen as the quarter progresses.
14%CEO/CFO:“We expect higher consolidated earnings in the second quarter of 2026, with improved earnings across all three operating segments.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-27Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-27Show history (1)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“We expect higher consolidated earnings in the second quarter of 2026...”
- #2
Increase EPS in 2026-Q1
GrowthAim to increase earnings per share in the first quarter of 2026.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Management anticipated an increase in earnings for the first quarter of 2026. However, the financials for 2025-Q4 showed a net income of -$28 million, suggesting challenges in achieving this target. The actual results for 2026-Q1 will determine if this priority is being met.
14%CEO/CFO:“We expect earnings to increase in the first quarter of 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-26Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-01-26provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We expect earnings to increase in the first quarter of 2026.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
60 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NUE Nucor | +13 | full | moderate |
LIN Linde plc | +24 | inexpensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +6.4 | — | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If materials sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-27)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-27)-8.0 pts
- If materials sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.5 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2711d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 27, 2026, Nucor Corporation issued a news release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended April 4, 2026. A copy of the news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 56 - 2026-02-202mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (c) On February 19, 2026, the Board of Directors of Nucor Corporation (the “Company”) elected John L. “Jack” Sullivan, the Company’s Vice President, Treasurer and General Manager of Investor Relations, as Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Executive Vice President of the Company, effective March 1, 2026. Mr. Sullivan succeeds Stephen D. Laxton,…
executive changeneutralscore 13 - 2026-03-032mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On February 27, 2026, Daniel R. Needham, Executive Vice President of Commercial at Nucor Corporation (the Company), notified the Company’s Board of Directors that he will be retiring from the Company effective June 20, 2026. Mr. Needham, 60, joined the Company in 2000 and has been an Executive Vice President since 2021. His decision to retire i…
executive changeneutralscore 12 - 2026-02-272mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 26, 2026, the Company and Mr. Sullivan entered into an Executive Employment Agreement (the “Executive Employment Agreement”), effective March 1, 2026, in connection with Mr. Sullivan’s promotion to Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Executive Vice President of the Company. The Executive Employment Agreement contains the entire agree…
executive changeneutralscore 11
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.