Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.22-1.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NVAX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -69.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -27.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NVAX — litigation filed
Dated 2026-01-20
Entry into Material Definitive Agreements. License Agreement On January 15, 2026, (the “Effective Date”), Novavax, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a License and Option Agreement (the “License and Option Agreement”) with Pfizer Inc. (“Pfizer”), collectively (the “Parties”). The License and Option Agreement provides a non-exclusive, worldwide, license, to the Company’s Matrix-M TM adjuvant technology (the “Matrix-M Technology”) for Pfizer to research, develop, and commercialize the Matrix-M T…
Why it matters: If they reach this revenue range, it will show their growth plan works.
Supportive ifTotal revenue for 2026 reported within the $235M-$275M range.
Worry ifTotal revenue is below $235 million for 2026.
Why it matters: If this agreement works well, Novavax could earn a lot of money.
Supportive ifThere is news about progress in the Pfizer Matrix-M partnership.
Worry ifNo news or problems were reported about the Pfizer Matrix-M agreement.
Why it matters: Starting clinical trials for this candidate could help Novavax's products. It may also increase future income.
Supportive ifNovavax plans to start clinical trials for the C. difficile vaccine by 2027.
Worry ifDelays in clinical trial entry for the C. difficile vaccine candidate.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insights into financial health and progress.
Watch forQ2 earnings were better than expected, with positive guidance.
Also watch forQ2 earnings were worse than expected, with negative guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$175 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $572 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,487 loss on $10,000 · 34.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Choosing this candidate shows Novavax cares about new ideas and growth.
Supportive ifThe C. difficile vaccine candidate is starting clinical trials.
Worry ifNo progress or delays in the clinical trial timeline for the C. difficile vaccine.
Why it matters: This trial start would trigger a $125 million milestone payment to Novavax. It shows progress in their partnership with Sanofi.
Supportive ifSanofi announces the trial initiation in the U.S. or EU.
Worry ifNo news about the trial starting later than expected.
Why it matters: New deals could increase income and prove Novavax's technology works in the market.
Supportive ifNew licensing deals or partnerships with Matrix-M are announced.
Worry ifNo new deals or licensing agreements are announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New partnerships could bring in more money and prove Novavax's technology works.
Supportive ifNew deals or partnerships with Matrix-M have been announced.
Worry ifNo new partnerships or collaborations are planned for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on revenue guidance will show if Novavax is on track for its 2026 goals.
Supportive ifManagement raises 2026 revenue guidance to more than $270 million.
Worry ifManagement lowers 2026 revenue guidance to less than $230 million.