Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.78-8.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NVAX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -67.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -23.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
NVAX — litigation filed
Dated 2026-01-20
Entry into Material Definitive Agreements. License Agreement On January 15, 2026, (the “Effective Date”), Novavax, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a License and Option Agreement (the “License and Option Agreement”) with Pfizer Inc. (“Pfizer”), collectively (the “Parties”). The License and Option Agreement provides a non-exclusive, worldwide, license, to the Company’s Matrix-M TM adjuvant technology (the “Matrix-M Technology”) for Pfizer to research, develop, and commercialize the Matrix-M T…
Why it matters: Novavax has begun pre-IND work and GMP manufacturing. A trial start would show the program has moved beyond planning.
Supportive ifNovavax announces the first patient is dosed in a C. difficile vaccine trial during 2027.
Worry ifNovavax reports the trial has not started by December 31, 2027, or says the program is paused.
Why it matters: The Phase 3 trial has started, and Novavax expects payment by Q1 2027. Receipt would add cash and confirm this partnership payment.
Supportive ifNovavax reports receiving the $125 million payment by March 31, 2027.
Worry ifNovavax reports the payment is delayed past March 31, 2027, disputed, or not received.
Why it matters: Many partners are testing Matrix-M, but tests alone do not bring license payments or product royalties. New signed deals would show progress.
Supportive ifNovavax announces at least one new Matrix-M license deal beyond the Pfizer deal. It names the fields or payment terms.
Worry ifBy the end of 2027, Novavax reports no new Matrix-M license deals. No partner program has moved into clinical development.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$179 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $612 loss on $10,000 · 6.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,458 loss on $10,000 · 34.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.