ODFL
Old DominionNASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ODFL has a composite score of 14.3 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 76.6 and reflects strengths in quality (75.7) and macro factors (30.0), while valuation is considered expensive at 22.6. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the situation may change as new information becomes available.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.04
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.28 → $1.45 (+13.0% / 30d). 12 raised, 0 cut, 17 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 9 maintained. 36% of analysts rate Buy.
9 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.0% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree — analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
2 material events in the last 24 months — top 2 listed below.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Generate profitable revenue growthgrowthmixed65% progress
3/3: “We remain confident that we are in a unique position to generate profitable revenue growth.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $1,385.8M in 2024-Q4 to $1,540.5M in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards profitable revenue growth. The trajectory shows delivering on this priority.
- 2.Manage capital expenditurescapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/29: “The Company expects its aggregate capital expenditures for 2026 to total approximately $265 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. CAPEX guidance reduced from $450M in 2025 to $265M in 2026, indicating a focus on managing capital expenditures. The trajectory shows limited progress, as the reduction aligns with strategic goals but is behind initial plans.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 41%; 252d 39%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −28%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.39 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 34/100, drawdown 44/100, beta 61/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Generate profitable revenue growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on achieving profitable revenue growth to increase shareholder value.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $1,385.8M in 2024-Q4 to $1,540.5M in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards profitable revenue growth. The trajectory shows delivering on this priority.
Revenue grew from $1,385.8M in 2024-Q4 to $1,540.5M in 2025-Q465%CEO/CFO:“We remain confident that we are in a unique position to generate profitable revenue growth.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-03-03Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We remain confident that we are in a unique position to generate profitable revenue growth.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We are focused on generating profitable revenue growth.”
- #2
Manage capital expenditures
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Maintain control over capital expenditures to align with strategic goals.
Behind →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. CAPEX guidance reduced from $450M in 2025 to $265M in 2026, indicating a focus on managing capital expenditures. The trajectory shows limited progress, as the reduction aligns with strategic goals but is behind initial plans.
35%CEO/CFO:“The Company expects its aggregate capital expenditures for 2026 to total approximately $265 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company expects its aggregate capital expenditures for 2026 to total approximately $265 million.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The Company expects its aggregate capital expenditures for 2025 to total approximately $450 million.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“The Company expects its aggregate capital expenditures for 2025 to total approximately $450 million.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
50 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ODFL Old Dominion | +14 | expensive | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-299d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 29, 2026, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. issued a press release regarding its financial results for its first quarter of 2026, ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 53 - 2026-02-043mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 4, 2026, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. issued a press release regarding its financial results for its fourth quarter of 2025, ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8 - 2025-12-095mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 3, 2025, Debra S. King resigned from the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (the “Company”), effective immediately. Ms. King’s resignation was due to time commitments related to her other professional obligations and was not due to any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company’s…
executive changeneutralscore 2
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.