Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ODYSSEY THERAPEUTICS INC (ODTX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.88-3.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ODTX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain sufficient cash runway into second half of 2028 | A supporting condition in ODYSSEY THERAPEUTICS INC's published investment case. The stated target is Cash on hand of at least $433.1 million. | Intact | Cash on hand falls below $300 million | Cash and cash equivalents: $82.031M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash on hand of at least $433.1 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Date unavailable82,031,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology business, where the case depends on advancing drug candidates rather than established product performance. The thesis state is insufficient because recent financial history does not support a clear read, and confidence in the overall assessment is low.
The evidence does not provide a valuation level or specific market expectations, so whether ODTX is cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. No priced-in fragility signals fired, but that does not establish that expectations are low or that valuation is resilient.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated after misses on June 17 and August 4, and the supplied evidence flags a high likelihood of another miss. For the multi-year view, OD-001’s Phase 2a induction trial met its primary endpoint, while later trials remain planned; management reported cash expected to fund operations into the second half of 2028. Progress on OD-002 is not established by the supplied quarter’s financials.
The key company-specific question is whether planned OD-001 trials advance and whether management delivers on its development priorities while maintaining the stated runway. A guidance cut or further weakening in job growth could weigh on the near-term setup, while continued strength among healthcare sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, ODTX’s case depends on translating early clinical progress into next-stage trials, with a reported cash runway providing time but not removing execution risk. The available evidence is too limited to establish a clear thesis state or valuation conclusion. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results As of September 30, 2026, Odyssey had cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $387 million, which are expected to fund Odyssey’s operations into the second half of 2028.” “Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results As of June 30, 2026, Odyssey had cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $433.1 million, which are expected to fund Odyssey’s operations into the second half of 2028.”
Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026Advance clinical development of OD-001 and OD-002 | A primary condition in ODYSSEY THERAPEUTICS INC's published investment case. The stated target is Complete Phase 2b trials for OD-001 and initiate Phase 1/2a trials for OD-002 by end of 2026. | Improving | Clinical trials for OD-001 and OD-002 do not progress as planned | Trials extended by 2 years (Sep 2026) Sep 2026 news reports trials extended by two years, strongly reinforcing the clinical advancement objective. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage operating expenses to control cash burn | A supporting condition in ODYSSEY THERAPEUTICS INC's published investment case. The stated target is R&D expenses below $40 million and G&A expenses below $10 million. | Intact | R&D expenses exceed $40 million or G&A expenses exceed $10 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-4.19 → $-4.77 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | $-4.19 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-4.19 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-4.19 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-4.19 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-4.37 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-4.37 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-4.37 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-4.37 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-4.37 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-4.37 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-4.37 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-4.37 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-4.37 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-4.37 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-4.37 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-4.37 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-4.80 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-4.80 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-4.80 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-4.80 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-4.80 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-4.80 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-4.80 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-4.80 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-4.80 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-4.87 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-4.67 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-4.68 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-4.68 | $2,976,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-4.68 | $2,976,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-4.68 | $2,976,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-4.68 | $2,976,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-4.68 | $2,976,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-4.68 | $2,976,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-4.77 | $2,976,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-4.77 | $2,976,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-4.77 | $2,976,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-4.77 | $2,976,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-4.77 | $2,976,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-4.77 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-4.77 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-4.77 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-4.77 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-4.77 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-4.77 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-4.77 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-4.77 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-4.77 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-4.77 | $2,976,000 | 5 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.