OnKure Therapeutics Inc (OKUR)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.58+0.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OKUR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 37.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -71.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 108.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OKUR — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-13
The filing discloses a repricing of underwater stock options and associated retention requirements, not a change in personnel or management structure.
Why it matters: Having enough cash is important for funding clinical work. It helps keep operations stable.
Worry ifThe company has more than $150 million in cash and cash-like assets.
Less concerning ifCash drops below $150 million. This raises worries about funding.
Why it matters: This news is important for OnKure's breast cancer treatment. It shows progress in their drug development.
Supportive ifOnKure submits the IND application for OKI-345 to the FDA by the end of Q2 2027.
Worry ifThe IND submission for OKI-345 is delayed beyond H1 2027.
Why it matters: Data from this trial could show how well OKI-219 works. This will affect future plans.
Watch forGood data from the PIKture-01 trial backs more work on OKI-219.
Also watch forNegative data from the trial leads to a halt in OKI-219 development.
Why it matters: These submissions are important steps for OnKure's new cancer therapies. Success could prove their plan works.
Supportive ifOnKure submits IND applications for both OKI-355 and OKI-345 as planned.
Worry ifOnKure delays or cancels the IND submissions for either candidate.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$195 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $427 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,304 loss on $10,000 · 23.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: High operating losses show ongoing money problems. This impacts funding for clinical work.
Worry ifOperating losses exceed -$15.62M in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating losses drop below -$15.62M.
Why it matters: This report will show if revenue continues to decline or if it stabilizes. Investors will look for signs of improvement.
Watch forRevenue increases from Q1 2026's $458K to above $500K in Q2 2026.
Also watch forRevenue falls below $458K in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Funding for clinical activities is very important. Updates will show if they can keep going.
Supportive ifLook for news on new funding or partnerships for clinical activities before Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo updates or funding announcements by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on cash runway are critical for funding ongoing operations and clinical trials. It shows financial health.
Worry ifOnKure has more than $170 million in cash and other assets in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifOnKure has under $170 million in cash and other assets in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Data from this trial will inform the potential of OKI-219 in breast cancer. It affects future development decisions.
Watch forOnKure releases positive data from the PIKture-01 trial by the end of 2026.
Also watch forOnKure does not release any data from the PIKture-01 trial by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Changes to the incentive plan can impact employee motivation and retention. This may affect company performance.
Watch forA press release will share new incentives or performance goals that match company aims.
Also watch forNo updates or bad news from shareholders about the changes to the incentive plan.