Omnicell (OMCL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$39.41+11.14%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OMCL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OMCL — officer change
Dated 2026-05-26
The filing pertains to an amendment of the equity incentive plan, not a management change.
Why it matters: Recurring revenue can show whether service and software sales are growing. The company kept the low end of its range unchanged.
Supportive if2026 annual recurring revenue tops $670 million.
Worry if2026 revenue from annual recurring contracts is under $660 million.
Why it matters: Q3 revenue fell 1% from a year earlier, despite coming in above prior guidance. Another decline would show weak sales momentum.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue is below $295 million, the low end of company guidance.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 revenue is at least $301 million, above the high end of company guidance.
Why it matters: The company raised its profit range after strong Q3 results. A miss would weaken the sign that cost control is lifting profit.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 non-GAAP EBITDA is below $187 million, the low end of the updated range.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 non-GAAP EBITDA reaches at least $193 million, the top of the updated range.
Why it matters: Bookings show whether customer demand is turning into orders. The current full-year range is $425 million to $560 million.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 product bookings exceed $560 million.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 product bookings fall below $425 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$160 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $410 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,728 loss on $10,000 · 37.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.