ON
ON SemiconductorNASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ON has a composite score of 6.3 with a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects medium confidence at 78.5, driven by various factors including macroeconomic conditions and sector trends. Key drivers include macro rates, growth, inflation, and labor, with notable unfavorable scenarios such as a potential guidance cut and a reversal in rates. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.85
- Slope (norm)-0.45
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.66 → $0.71 (+8.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 28 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 14 maintained. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
8 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain revenue growthgrowthbehind30% progress
5/4: “Revenue guidance for Q2 2026 is set between $1,535 and $1,635 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue guidance for Q2 2026 is set between $1,535 and $1,635 million, indicating a focus on maintaining growth. However, actual revenue in 2026-Q1 was $1,513.3 million, slightly below the previous quarter's $1,530.1 million, showing limited progress in achieving higher growth.
- 2.Improve gross margincostbehind0% progress
5/4: “Gross margin guidance for Q2 2026 is 37.9% to 39.9%.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Gross margin guidance for Q2 2026 is 37.9% to 39.9%, aiming for improvement. However, actual gross profit in 2026-Q1 was $583.1 million, down from $587.2 million in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress in margin enhancement.
- 3.Issue convertible senior notescapital allocationmixed35% progress
5/7: “Announced the pricing of $1.3 billion convertible senior notes due 2031.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Announced the issuance of $1.3 billion convertible senior notes due 2031, indicating a strategic move in capital allocation. This is a new initiative with no prior quarters for comparison, so its impact on financials is yet to be seen.
Guidance track record
Last 5 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-30 | $0.82 – $0.94 | $0.96 | beat |
| 2024-12-31 | $0.88 – $1.00 | $0.95 | inside |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.42 – $0.52 | $0.55 | beat |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.45 – $0.55 | $0.53 | inside |
| 2026-03-31 | $0.28 – $0.38 | $0.64 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 61%; 252d 52%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −28%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.10 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 14/100, drawdown 44/100, beta 10/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 9.0% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain revenue growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on sustaining revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue guidance for Q2 2026 is set between $1,535 and $1,635 million, indicating a focus on maintaining growth. However, actual revenue in 2026-Q1 was $1,513.3 million, slightly below the previous quarter's $1,530.1 million, showing limited progress in achieving higher growth.
30%CEO/CFO:“Revenue guidance for Q2 2026 is set between $1,535 and $1,635 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-04Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (4)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Revenue guidance for Q2 2026 is set between $1,535 and $1,635 million.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Revenue guidance for Q1 2026 is set between $1,435 and $1,535 million.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Revenue guidance for Q4 2025 is set between $1,480 and $1,580 million.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Revenue guidance for Q3 2025 is set between $1,465 and $1,565 million.”
- #2
Improve gross margin
CostNew since 2026-05-04Aim to enhance gross margin through operational efficiencies.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Gross margin guidance for Q2 2026 is 37.9% to 39.9%, aiming for improvement. However, actual gross profit in 2026-Q1 was $583.1 million, down from $587.2 million in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress in margin enhancement.
0%CEO/CFO:“Gross margin guidance for Q2 2026 is 37.9% to 39.9%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-04Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (4)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Gross margin guidance for Q2 2026 is 37.9% to 39.9%.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Gross margin guidance for Q1 2026 is 37.4% to 39.4%.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Gross margin guidance for Q4 2025 is 36.9% to 38.9%.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Gross margin guidance for Q3 2025 is 36.4% to 38.4%.”
- #3
Issue convertible senior notes
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-07Announced the issuance of $1.3 billion in convertible senior notes.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Announced the issuance of $1.3 billion convertible senior notes due 2031, indicating a strategic move in capital allocation. This is a new initiative with no prior quarters for comparison, so its impact on financials is yet to be seen.
Issuance of $1.3 billion convertible senior notes35%CEO/CFO:“Announced the pricing of $1.3 billion convertible senior notes due 2031.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-07Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-07Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Announced the pricing of $1.3 billion convertible senior notes due 2031.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ON ON Semiconductor | +6.3 | full | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-044d agoItem 2.02
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to liability under that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 60 - 2026-05-071d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On May 6, 2026, ON Semiconductor Corporation issued a press release announcing the pricing of an offering of $1.3 billion aggregate principal amount of its 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 in a private transaction that is exempt from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein.
capital allocationneutralscore 50 - 2026-05-062d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On May 6, 2026, ON Semiconductor Corporation issued a press release announcing the commencement of an offering of $1.3 billion aggregate principal amount of its Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 in a private transaction that is exempt from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein.
capital allocationneutralscore 49 - 2026-03-111mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (b) On March 9, 2026, ON Semiconductor Corporation (together with its affiliates, “ onsemi ”) and Simon Keeton, Group President, Power Solutions Group of onsemi, agreed that Mr. Keeton will resign from all employment positions at onsemi effective June 30, 2026. Although Mr. Keeton will step down from all officer positions immediately, he has agreed…
executive changeneutralscore 15 - 2026-02-092mo agoItem 2.02
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to liability under that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 9
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.