Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
$0.21 → $0.21 · observed estimates
Onterris, Inc. (ONT)
NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.13+2.80%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 6, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.21 → 0.21 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ONT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improvement in profit margins | A supporting condition in Onterris, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=10% profit margin. | Under Pressure | profit margin falls below 10% | Net margin: 0.73% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% profit margin. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 20260.731808 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
$0.21 → $0.21 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ONT is a higher-risk profitability improvement story, not yet a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis has improved this month as company quality, management, and the overall signal strengthened, but recent performance still trails its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence is mixed: ONT is tagged as expensive, while one measure shows it as cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, but confidence in that estimate is low, so the market’s assumptions are hard to pin down; the priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility.
In the near term, profitability has improved: operating income and net income moved from losses in late 2025 to positive results by 2026-Q2. Management has kept profitability as a priority for three straight quarters, though performance remains below the industry cohort and the sector backdrop is a headwind. The evidence for a durable multi-year trend is still limited.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued progress toward profitability and whether that progress can persist despite elevated risk. Near-term sector signals matter: continued earnings strength from WM, RSG, and CLH could support Industrials momentum, while weaker results or guidance could remove that support. A weakening jobs trend could also raise recession concerns for cyclical businesses like ONT.
ONT’s profitability trend and recent company signals have improved, but the business remains loss-making by the overall earnings-quality assessment, with elevated risk and mixed valuation evidence. The 1-3 year view remains watchful and hinges on sustained execution and the sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Onterris, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=80% of operational targets met. |
| Under Pressure |
| operational targets met fall below 80% |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth from new contracts | A primary condition in Onterris, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY. | Under Pressure | falls below 4% YoY revenue growth next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Oct 6, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.82B → $0.82B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | $0.21 | $816,263,467 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.21 | $816,263,467 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.21 | $816,263,467 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.21 | $816,263,467 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.21 | $816,232,362 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.