OXY
Occidental PetroleumNYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, OXY has a composite score of -7.0 and a signal label of "mixed." The company momentum score increased significantly by 56.6 points, rising from -15.9 to 40.7. This change in momentum contributed to the overall mixed signal, while the composite score reflects various factors, including macroeconomic conditions and sector trends. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.07
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Joint read: strong + robust historically delivered 80%+ NI-grew rate over T+1y in IT 2024–26 (small N).
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.26 → $1.42 (+12.8% / 30d). 9 raised, 6 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 27% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree — analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
8 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-05-04OXY — CEO transitionimpact 0.80
- 2026-03-09OXY — debt issuanceimpact 0.27
- 2026-02-19OXY — debt issuanceimpact 0.25
- 2026-03-09OXY — capital allocation — Material Modification to Rights of Security Holdersimpact 0.24
- 2026-03-09OXY — M&A activity — Entry into a Material Definitive Agreementimpact 0.23
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Accelerate FCF growth through efficiency gainsgrowthwatchprovisional
10/2: “We expect to accelerate FCF growth through continued efficiency and performance gains.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. Despite the focus on accelerating FCF growth, cash from operating activities showed volatility, with a significant negative cash flow of -$3.57B in 2025-Q4, following a positive $7.90B in 2025-Q3. This indicates limited progress in achieving consistent FCF growth through efficiency gains.
- 2.Reduce 2025 capital guidance by $200 millioncapital allocationwatchprovisional
5/7: “Reducing the mid-point of 2025 capital guidance by $200 million.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q1. The reduction in capital guidance was aimed at optimizing capital allocation. However, the financials do not provide specific capex figures to assess the impact of this reduction. The focus remains on capital discipline, but the trajectory is unclear without detailed capex data.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 44%; 252d 34%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −20%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLE) — 0.11 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 43/100, drawdown 60/100, beta 11/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · company_momentum_scoreseverity 94
Company momentum rose by 56.6 points (from -15.9 to 40.7).
- label change · signal_labelseverity 20
Signal changed from 'cautious' to 'mixed'.
As of May 8, 2026, the company momentum score for OXY rose by 56.6 points, changing from -15.9 to 40.7. Additionally, the signal label changed from 'cautious' to 'mixed'.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Accelerate FCF growth through efficiency gains
GrowthFocus on accelerating free cash flow growth by enhancing efficiency and performance across the organization.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q3. Despite the focus on accelerating FCF growth, cash from operating activities showed volatility, with a significant negative cash flow of -$3.57B in 2025-Q4, following a positive $7.90B in 2025-Q3. This indicates limited progress in achieving consistent FCF growth through efficiency gains.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“We expect to accelerate FCF growth through continued efficiency and performance gains.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-10-02Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-10-02provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“We expect to accelerate FCF growth through continued efficiency and performance gains.”
- #2
Reduce 2025 capital guidance by $200 million
Capital allocationReduce the mid-point of 2025 capital expenditure guidance by $200 million.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q1. The reduction in capital guidance was aimed at optimizing capital allocation. However, the financials do not provide specific capex figures to assess the impact of this reduction. The focus remains on capital discipline, but the trajectory is unclear without detailed capex data.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Reducing the mid-point of 2025 capital guidance by $200 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-05-07Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-05-07provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q1Multiple sources
“Reducing the mid-point of 2025 capital guidance by $200 million.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
35 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OXY Occidental Petroleum | -7.0 | expensive | moderate |
XOM ExxonMobil | +5.8 | expensive | moderate |
CVX Chevron Corporation | +3.0 | expensive | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | +8.0 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | +4.1 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+5.4 pts
- If energy sector trend rises from -0.03 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)-8.0 pts
- If energy sector trend falls from -0.03 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-044d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 30, 2026, Vicki Hollub, President and Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (“Occidental”), informed the Board of Directors of Occidental (the “Board”) of her decision to retire, effective as of June 1, 2026 (the “Transition Date”). The Executive Compensation Committee of the Board determined that Ms. Hollub’s…
executive changeneutralscore 73 - 2026-05-053d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026 , Occidental Petroleum Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial condition and results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this report and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section…
earnings preannouncement—score 61 - 2026-04-1028d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 10, 2026 , Occidental Petroleum Corporation (the “Company”) provided a summary of factors management believes will impact the Company's first quarter of 2026 results (the “Earnings Considerations”). A copy of the Earnings Considerations is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this report and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed to be “filed” for…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 38 - 2026-03-092mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information set forth in
mna activitypositivescore 16 - 2026-03-092mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On March 5, 2026, Occidental Petroleum Corporation (“ Occidental ”) announced (a) the early results of its previously announced (i) cash tender offers (the “ Tender Offers ”) to purchase its outstanding Zero Coupon Senior Notes due 2036 (the “ 0.000% 2036 Notes ”), 6.125% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “ 6.125% 2031 Notes ”), 6.625% Senior Notes due 2030 (the “ 6.625% 2030 Notes ”), 7.200% Debentures due 2029 (the “ 7.200% 2029 Debentures ”) and 7.950% Debentures due 2029 (the “ 7.9…
capital allocationneutralscore 13
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.