PANW
Palo Alto NetworksNASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, PANW has a composite score of 13.0 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 76.0 and elevated risk, with notable drivers including macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, inflation, and labor. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the information may be subject to change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.10
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.52 → $0.52 (+0.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 9 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.1% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
10 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-02-11PANW — debt issuanceimpact 0.32
- 2026-04-11PANW — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.29
- 2026-03-23PANW — debt issuanceimpact 0.28
- 2026-03-11PANW — share buyback announcedimpact 0.27
- 2026-02-11PANW — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.25
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Revenue growth of 22% to 23% for FY 2026growthon track98% progress
2/17: “For FY 2026, we expect total revenue in the range of $11.28 billion to $11.31 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 22% to 23%.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance for FY 2026 is $11.28 billion to $11.31 billion, up from $9.18 billion in FY 2025, indicating a growth of 22% to 23%. The trajectory aligns with management's stated growth expectations.
- 2.EPS guidance of $3.65 to $3.70 for FY 2026growthmixed65% progress
2/17: “For FY 2026, we expect diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $3.65 to $3.70.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance for FY 2026 was adjusted from $3.80-$3.90 to $3.65-$3.70, indicating a reduction. This reflects a cautious outlook despite revenue growth expectations.
- 3.Operating margin guidance of 29.5% to 30% for FY 2026costmixed65% progressprovisional
11/19: “For FY 2026, we expect non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 29.5% to 30.0%.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Operating margin guidance for FY 2026 is set at 29.5% to 30%. This is a new priority for the fiscal year, and its impact on profitability will be monitored in upcoming quarters.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 48%; 252d 36%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −36%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 40/100, drawdown 28/100, beta 4/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Revenue growth of 22% to 23% for FY 2026
GrowthAchieve total revenue growth of 22% to 23% for the fiscal year 2026.
On trackStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance for FY 2026 is $11.28 billion to $11.31 billion, up from $9.18 billion in FY 2025, indicating a growth of 22% to 23%. The trajectory aligns with management's stated growth expectations.
Revenue grew from $9.18 billion in FY 2025 to $11.28 billion to $11.31 billion in FY 202698%CEO/CFO:“For FY 2026, we expect total revenue in the range of $11.28 billion to $11.31 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 22% to 23%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-17Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-17Show history (2)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“For FY 2026, we expect total revenue in the range of $11.28 billion to $11.31 billion.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For FY 2026, we expect total revenue in the range of $10.50 billion to $10.54 billion.”
- #2
EPS guidance of $3.65 to $3.70 for FY 2026
GrowthAchieve diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $3.65 to $3.70 for FY 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance for FY 2026 was adjusted from $3.80-$3.90 to $3.65-$3.70, indicating a reduction. This reflects a cautious outlook despite revenue growth expectations.
EPS guidance reduced from $3.80-$3.90 to $3.65-$3.70 for FY 202665%CEO/CFO:“For FY 2026, we expect diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $3.65 to $3.70.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-17Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-17Show history (2)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“For FY 2026, we expect diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $3.65 to $3.70.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For FY 2026, we expect diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $3.80 to $3.90.”
- #3
Operating margin guidance of 29.5% to 30% for FY 2026
CostMaintain non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 29.5% to 30% for FY 2026.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Operating margin guidance for FY 2026 is set at 29.5% to 30%. This is a new priority for the fiscal year, and its impact on profitability will be monitored in upcoming quarters.
Operating margin guidance of 29.5% to 30% for FY 202665%CEO/CFO:“For FY 2026, we expect non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 29.5% to 30.0%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-11-19Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-11-19provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For FY 2026, we expect non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 29.5% to 30.0%.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
50 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PANW Palo Alto Networks | +13 | full | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-17)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-17)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-1128d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 8, 2026, Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into three lease amendments (collectively, the “Amendments”) extending the term of the Company’s leases (collectively, the “Leases”) of the following properties: (i) Building E comprised of approximately 290,082 rentable square feet and located at 3000 Tannery Way, Santa Clara, California, (ii) Building G comprised of approximately 309,559 square feet and located at 3200 Tannery Way,…
mna activitypositivescore 35 - 2026-04-1128d agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under Item 1.01, “Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement,” is incorporated herein by reference.
capital allocationnegativescore 27 - 2026-03-231mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Reference is made to that certain Indenture, dated as of June 10, 2025 (the “Base Indenture”), between CyberArk Software Ltd. (the “CyberArk”) and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, as trustee (the “Trustee”), as amended, supplemented or otherwise modified from time, including by that certain First Supplemental Indenture, dated as of February 11, 2026 (the “Supplemental Indenture”), among the Company, the Trustee and Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (the “Indenture”), govern…
capital allocationneutralscore 18 - 2026-03-111mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On March 10, 2026, the Board of Directors of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the repurchase of up to an additional $1.0 billion of the Company’s common stock. This authorization is an increase to the existing $4.1 billion repurchase authorization, which was originally approved by the Company’s Board of Directors in February 2019 and extended in December 2020, August 2021, August 2022, November 2023, August 2024, and November 2025, of which $0.0 million remained…
capital allocationpositivescore 14 - 2026-02-172mo agoItem 2.02
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 10
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.