Paychex (PAYX)
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$121.71-2.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put PAYX beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Industrials is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve 5% to 6% revenue growth in fiscal 2027: FY27 revenue guidance +5.8% to +6.1% vs 5.0% target.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 17% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 16%.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 19% growth a year, above the roughly 6% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 36% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskPAYX's growth has to keep compounding to justify the price. Revenue grew 20% year over year, and the last quarter beat expectations. It trades at 22× P/E versus a 24× peer median, indicating the market is pricing in more growth than we forecast. The primary risk is the pressure to achieve 5% to 6% revenue growth in fiscal 2027, with guidance at 5.8% to 6.1%. Peer multiples imply a price about 19% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis). This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. PAYX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 18 analysts currently covering PAYX (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 4 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for PAYX in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYX Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Human Resource & Employment Services — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put PAYX next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Integrate Paycor acquisition to expand upmarket and AI capabilities
Expanding WISE enhances AI capabilities and market position.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $121.71
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $121.71.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Integrate Paycor acquisition to expand upmarket and AI capabilities
Insider filing indicates commitment to upmarket integration.
Advances: Integrate Paycor acquisition to expand upmarket and AI capabilities
Strong results indicate AI platform supports future growth.
Price target cut indicates revenue growth concerns.
Threatens: Grow adjusted diluted EPS by 7% to 9% in fiscal 2027
Lower revenue growth outlook challenges EPS growth target.
Advances: Increase EPS by 10% to 11% in fiscal 2026
Earnings call confirms strong operating margin supports EPS growth.
Strong results but growth concerns may impact future performance.
Advances: Grow adjusted diluted EPS by 7% to 9% in fiscal 2027
Earnings beat supports adjusted EPS growth objective.