PAYX
PaychexNASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, PAYX has a composite score of 14.0, categorized as "mild favorable." The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 79.3 and elevated risk, with a total risk score of 57.9. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, labor, rates, and inflation. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.19
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Joint read: strong + robust historically delivered 80%+ NI-grew rate over T+1y in IT 2024–26 (small N).
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.30 → $1.30 (-0.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 15 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 5% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence — fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
7 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-01-20PAYX — CEO transitionimpact 0.60
- 2026-01-26PAYX — credit agreementimpact 0.30
- 2026-01-26PAYX — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.24
- 2026-01-20PAYX — share buyback announcedimpact 0.23
- 2026-01-26PAYX — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreementimpact 0.16
Stated priorities
Insufficient transcript history for this ticker.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 28%; 252d 25%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −45%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 0.15 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 58/100, drawdown 10/100, beta 16/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
0 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PAYX Paychex | +14 | inexpensive | elevated |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-03-25)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-03-25)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-03-251mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 25, 2026, Paychex, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release (the "Press Release") reporting its financial results for the three and nine months ended February 28, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being "furnished" herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Secur…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 24 - 2026-01-203mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 20, 2026, Paychex, Inc. (the "Company") announced that the Board of Directors (the "Board") has voted to expand to eleven members and has appointed J. Michael Hansen, to fill the newly created position as an independent director. Mr. Hansen will participate in the Company's compensation arrangement generally applicable to all of the Comp…
executive changeneutralscore 7 - 2026-01-263mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amendment to and Extension of the 2017 Credit Facility On January 23, 2026, Paychex of New York LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“PoNY”) and Paychex, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Parent”) entered into an amendment (the “2017 Credit Facility Amendment”) to the $750.0 million, five-year, unsecured, revolving credit facility established in favor of PoNY as borrower on August 17, 2017 (as previously amended and extended from time to time…
capital allocationneutralscore 6 - 2026-01-263mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth above under
capital allocationnegativescore 5 - 2026-01-263mo agoItem 1.02
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. In connection with the amendment and extension of the 2017 Credit Facility and the amendment to the 2019 Credit Facility, Paychex Advance, LLC, a New York limited liability company (“Paychex Advance”) and the Parent terminated, effective January 23, 2026, the three-year, $250 million, unsecured, revolving credit facility established in favor of Paychex Advance as borrower on February 6, 2020 ( as previously amended and extended from time to time…
mna activitynegativescore 5
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.