PCAR
PaccarNASDAQIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, PCAR has a composite score of 4.3 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects a medium confidence level of 75.0. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, labor, rates, and inflation, with notable influences from potential guidance changes and sector trends. The overall risk is categorized as low, while the valuation score stands at 46.1, indicating a full valuation. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.13
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.32 → $1.37 (+3.7% / 30d). 7 raised, 1 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 35% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning — often a turnaround setup.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
7 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Invest in capital projectscapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/28: “PACCAR estimates that it will invest $725-$775 million in capital projects in 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures are projected to be in the range of $725-$775 million for 2026. Despite consistent emphasis, the financials do not yet show specific capital project completions or milestones, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
- 2.Increase R&D spendingproductwatchprovisional
4/28: “Research and development expenses are estimated to be in the range $450-$500 million in 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Research and development expenses are estimated to be in the range $450-$500 million for 2026. The financials do not yet reflect specific R&D achievements or product launches, indicating a focus on planning rather than execution.
- 3.Manage CEO transitiontalentwatchprovisional
5/1: “Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 32%; 252d 26%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −14%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.07 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 56/100, drawdown 72/100, beta 93/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Invest in capital projects
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Continue investment in capital projects with a projected range of $725-$775 million for 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures are projected to be in the range of $725-$775 million for 2026. Despite consistent emphasis, the financials do not yet show specific capital project completions or milestones, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
35%CEO/CFO:“PACCAR estimates that it will invest $725-$775 million in capital projects in 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“PACCAR estimates that it will invest $725-$775 million in capital projects in 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures are projected to be in the range of $725-$775 million.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures are projected to be in the range of $750-$775 million.”
- #2
Increase R&D spending
ProductNew since 2026-05-04Maintain increased R&D spending with an estimated range of $450-$500 million for 2026.
WatchStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Research and development expenses are estimated to be in the range $450-$500 million for 2026. The financials do not yet reflect specific R&D achievements or product launches, indicating a focus on planning rather than execution.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Research and development expenses are estimated to be in the range $450-$500 million in 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Research and development expenses are estimated to be in the range $450-$500 million in 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Research and development expenses are estimated to be in the range $450-$500 million.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Research and development expenses are estimated to be in the range $450-$465 million.”
- #3
Manage CEO transition
TalentNew since 2026-05-04PACCAR is managing a CEO transition as part of its executive changes.
WatchNo scoreCEO/CFO:“Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-01First seen 2026-05-04provisional
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PCAR Paccar | +4.3 | full | low |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2810d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026 PACCAR Inc (the “Registrant”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026 and announcing that it would hold a conference call with securities analysts to discuss first quarter 2026 earnings to be held that same day as more fully described in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall n…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 52 - 2026-05-017d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Item 502(f). On April 27, 2026, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors approved the Long Term Performance Cash Awards (the “LTIP Cash Awards”) for the 2023-2025 cycle under the Long Term Incentive Plan for the Named Executive Officers identified in the Company’s March 18, 2026 proxy statement (the “Proxy Statement”). The total compens…
executive changeneutralscore 48 - 2026-01-273mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 27, 2026 PACCAR Inc (the “Registrant”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 and announcing that it would hold a conference call with securities analysts to discuss fourth quarter 2025 earnings to be held that same day as more fully described in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, sha…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 6 - 2026-01-163mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On January 14, 2026, C. Michael Dozier, Executive Vice President, announced his retirement from PACCAR after 37 years of service. Mr. Dozier’s retirement is effective April 1, 2026.
executive changeneutralscore 4 - 2025-12-124mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (c) Kevin D. Baney, 55, will be promoted to President of the Company effective January 1, 2026. Mr. Baney has served as the Company’s Executive Vice President since January 2025. He has worked at the Company for 31 years and has held positions of increasing responsibility throughout PACCAR, including as Senior Vice President and as Vice President a…
executive changeneutralscore 2
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.