PEP
PepsiCoNASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, PEP has a composite score of 11.6, indicating a "mild favorable" signal. This score is influenced by a high confidence level of 80.5 and a macro score of 15.5. Key drivers include potential unfavorable scenarios such as a guidance cut and labor state reversal, alongside favorable scenarios like a sector trend improvement and guidance raise. The analysis is provisional, reflecting the latest data from April and May 2026.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.14
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.27 → $2.23 (-1.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 14 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 35% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 3.7% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
5 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase organic revenue by 2-4%growthbehind0% progress
4/16: “For 2026, the Company continues to expect: 2 Organic revenue to increase between 2 and 4 percent;”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $17,919M in 2025-Q1 to $19,443M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the 2-4% organic growth target. The trajectory shows delivering against the stated priority.
- 2.Core EPS growth of 4-6%growthbehind0% progress
4/16: “Core constant currency EPS to increase between 4 and 6 percent;”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS increased from $1.33 in 2025-Q1 to $1.7 in 2026-Q1, reflecting progress towards the 4-6% growth target. The trajectory is delivering on the stated EPS growth priority.
- 3.Maintain FCF conversion ratio of 80%capital allocationmixed65% progress
4/16: “A free cash flow conversion ratio of at least 80 percent;”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $41,000M in 2026-Q1, indicating strong cash flow generation. The trajectory is on track to maintain the 80% FCF conversion ratio.
- 4.Capex below 5% of net revenuecapital allocationmixed65% progress
4/16: “Capital spending to be below 5 percent of net revenue;”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. With revenue at $19,443M in 2026-Q1, maintaining capex below 5% of net revenue is feasible. The trajectory is on track to meet this capital allocation priority.
- 5.Return $8.9 billion to shareholderscapital allocationmixed65% progress
4/16: “Total cash returns to shareholders of approximately $8.9 billion, comprised of dividends of $7.9 billion and share repurchases of $1.0 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The guidance to return $8.9 billion to shareholders is consistent with prior periods. The trajectory is on track to meet this capital allocation priority.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 19%; 252d 21%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −11%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLP) — 1.08 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 65/100, drawdown 78/100, beta 92/100, earnings vol —.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase organic revenue by 2-4%
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04PepsiCo aims to achieve organic revenue growth between 2% and 4% for fiscal year 2026.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $17,919M in 2025-Q1 to $19,443M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the 2-4% organic growth target. The trajectory shows delivering against the stated priority.
Revenue grew from $17919M in 2025-Q1 to $19443M in 2026-Q10%CEO/CFO:“For 2026, the Company continues to expect: 2 Organic revenue to increase between 2 and 4 percent;”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-16Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For 2026, the Company continues to expect: 2 Organic revenue to increase between 2 and 4 percent;”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“For 2026, the Company continues to expect: 2 Organic revenue to increase between 2 and 4 percent;”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“As a result, we expect full-year 2026 organic revenue growth to range between 2 and 4 percent”
- #2
Core EPS growth of 4-6%
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04PepsiCo targets a core constant currency EPS increase between 4% and 6% for 2026.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS increased from $1.33 in 2025-Q1 to $1.7 in 2026-Q1, reflecting progress towards the 4-6% growth target. The trajectory is delivering on the stated EPS growth priority.
0%CEO/CFO:“Core constant currency EPS to increase between 4 and 6 percent;”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-16Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Core constant currency EPS to increase between 4 and 6 percent;”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Core constant currency EPS to increase between 4 and 6 percent;”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“As a result of the factors mentioned above, we expect core EPS to increase approximately 5 to 7 percent in fiscal 2026”
- #3
Maintain FCF conversion ratio of 80%
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04PepsiCo aims to maintain a free cash flow conversion ratio of at least 80% for 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $41,000M in 2026-Q1, indicating strong cash flow generation. The trajectory is on track to maintain the 80% FCF conversion ratio.
65%CEO/CFO:“A free cash flow conversion ratio of at least 80 percent;”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-16Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“A free cash flow conversion ratio of at least 80 percent;”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“A free cash flow conversion ratio of at least 80 percent.”
- #4
Capex below 5% of net revenue
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04PepsiCo plans to keep capital spending below 5% of net revenue for 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. With revenue at $19,443M in 2026-Q1, maintaining capex below 5% of net revenue is feasible. The trajectory is on track to meet this capital allocation priority.
65%CEO/CFO:“Capital spending to be below 5 percent of net revenue;”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-16Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Capital spending to be below 5 percent of net revenue;”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Capital spending to be below 5 percent of net revenue;”
- #5
Return $8.9 billion to shareholders
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04PepsiCo intends to return approximately $8.9 billion to shareholders in 2026 through dividends and share repurchases.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The guidance to return $8.9 billion to shareholders is consistent with prior periods. The trajectory is on track to meet this capital allocation priority.
65%CEO/CFO:“Total cash returns to shareholders of approximately $8.9 billion, comprised of dividends of $7.9 billion and share repurchases of $1.0 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-16Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Total cash returns to shareholders of approximately $8.9 billion, comprised of dividends of $7.9 billion and share repurchases of $1.0 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Total cash returns to shareholders of approximately $8.6 billion, comprised of dividends of $7.6 billion and share repurchases of $1.0 billion”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PEP PepsiCo | +12 | fair | low |
WMT Walmart | -9.3 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | +3.9 | expensive | moderate |
PG Procter & Gamble | +15 | fair | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | +14 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_staples sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently INITIATED as of 2026-04-16)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently INITIATED as of 2026-04-16)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.2 pts
- If consumer_staples sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-1523d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 39 - 2026-02-023mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, ex…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7 - 2026-02-112mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. PepsiCo Senior Notes Offering. On February 4, 2026, PepsiCo, Inc. (“PepsiCo”) announced an offering of €500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its Floating Rate Notes due 2028 (the “2028 Floating Rate Notes”), €650,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 3.300% Senior Notes due 2034 (the “2034 Notes”), €850,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 3.700% Senior Notes due 2038 (the “2038 Notes”) and €500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 4.150% Senior Notes due 2047…
capital allocationneutralscore 7 - 2025-12-154mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 15, 2025, PepsiCo, Inc. announced that Steven Williams, Chief Executive Officer, North America, will transition to the role of Executive Vice President & Vice Chairman, Global Chief Commercial Officer & Corporate Affairs, effective December 28, 2025. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the reg…
executive changeneutralscore 3
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.