PLTR
Palantir TechnologiesNASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, PLTR has a composite score of 28.8, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 76.0 and elevated market risk at 70.4. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors related to rates, growth, inflation, and labor, with recent guidance indicating a potential unfavorable scenario if next-quarter guidance is cut. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.33
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.30 → $0.34 (+14.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 24 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 1 downgrade / 30d, 9 maintained. 59% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 29.9% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree — analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase U.S. commercial revenuegrowthmixed65% progress
5/4: “We are raising our U.S. commercial revenue guidance to in excess of $3.224 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 4 quarters. U.S. commercial revenue guidance was raised from over $1.178 billion in 2025-Q2 to exceed $3.224 billion in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows a significant increase in guidance, indicating progress towards this growth priority.
- 2.Raise adjusted free cash flow guidancecapital allocationmixed44% progress
5/4: “We are raising our adjusted free cash flow guidance to between $4.2 – $4.4 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted free cash flow guidance increased from $2.0 billion in 2025-Q3 to $4.3 billion in 2026-Q1. The consistent upward revision indicates progress in capital allocation priorities.
- 3.Achieve revenue growthgrowthmixed65% progressprovisional
2/2: “For full year 2026, we expect: Revenue of between $7.182 - $7.198 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 4 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $4.398 billion in 2025-Q4 to $7.19 billion for 2026. The upward revision in guidance reflects a focus on achieving revenue growth.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 57%; 252d 51%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −38%. Bad day move −6%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.08 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 15/100, drawdown 24/100, beta 8/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase U.S. commercial revenue
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Palantir aims to increase its U.S. commercial revenue to exceed $3.224 billion by the end of 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 4 quarters. U.S. commercial revenue guidance was raised from over $1.178 billion in 2025-Q2 to exceed $3.224 billion in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows a significant increase in guidance, indicating progress towards this growth priority.
U.S. commercial revenue guidance raised to exceed $3.224 billion65%CEO/CFO:“We are raising our U.S. commercial revenue guidance to in excess of $3.224 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-04Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We are raising our U.S. commercial revenue guidance to in excess of $3.224 billion.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“We are raising our U.S. commercial revenue guidance to in excess of $1.178 billion.”
- #2
Raise adjusted free cash flow guidance
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Palantir has increased its adjusted free cash flow guidance to between $4.2 and $4.4 billion for 2026.
MixedStated in 3 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted free cash flow guidance increased from $2.0 billion in 2025-Q3 to $4.3 billion in 2026-Q1. The consistent upward revision indicates progress in capital allocation priorities.
Adjusted free cash flow guidance raised to $4.2-$4.4 billion44%CEO/CFO:“We are raising our adjusted free cash flow guidance to between $4.2 – $4.4 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-04Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We are raising our adjusted free cash flow guidance to between $4.2 – $4.4 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Adjusted free cash flow of between $3.925 - $4.125 billion.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“We are raising our adjusted free cash flow guidance to between $1.9 - $2.1 billion.”
- #3
Achieve revenue growth
GrowthPalantir aims to achieve revenue growth, with guidance set between $7.182 and $7.198 billion for 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 4 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $4.398 billion in 2025-Q4 to $7.19 billion for 2026. The upward revision in guidance reflects a focus on achieving revenue growth.
Revenue guidance set between $7.182 and $7.198 billion for 202665%CEO/CFO:“For full year 2026, we expect: Revenue of between $7.182 - $7.198 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-02Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-02provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For full year 2026, we expect: Revenue of between $7.182 - $7.198 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We are raising our revenue guidance to between $4.396 - $4.400 billion.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
38 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PLTR Palantir Technologies | +29 | full | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-05-04)-16 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-044d agoItem 2.02
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 66 - 2026-02-023mo agoItem 2.02
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.