Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Patriot National Bancorp, Inc. (PNBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.82-8.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.43 → 1.43 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PNBK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Grow assets by $700 million to boost income | The bank aims to grow assets by $700 million. | Intact | asset growth falls short of $700 million next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 13, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative recovery case, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: results have improved, but earnings quality remains loss-making and management execution is volatile.
PNBK is tagged as stretched, despite being cheap versus peers; the valuation evidence therefore points to a mixed picture. The expectations gap is modest, and no fragility warning is flagged, but the evidence does not spell out exactly what the market assumes.
Over the past year, operating losses narrowed and net income moved from a loss to a small profit in 2026-Q2. Management has made progress on reducing losses, but its 2026 ROTCE target above 15% remains unproven, and the asset-growth plan has yet to produce more than modest profit. Near term, a guidance cut is a key risk, alongside the company’s history of recent earnings misses.
The multi-year case depends on sustained loss reduction, meaningful progress toward the ROTCE target, and whether the planned asset growth supports higher net income. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts would weigh on the setup, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, PNBK remains a watch-stage recovery thesis with early operating progress but high risk and limited proof of lasting profitability. The valuation signals are mixed, so the case hinges on execution and continued improvement in results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating losses have improved from -$9.55M to -$1.74M. |
| Intact |
| operating losses worsen beyond -$1.74M next year |
Operating income: $730,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating losses less than -$1.74M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 14, 2026730,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Move net income toward profitability | This could add $1 million monthly net income. | Intact | net income falls below -$1.76M next year | Net income: $143,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income better than -$1.76M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 14, 2026143,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.43 → $1.43 · observed estimates
$0.03B → $0.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.43 | $29,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.